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The discounted economic stock of money with VAR forecasting

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  • William A. Barnett

    (U. of Kansas)

  • Unja Chae

    (Intel Corporation)

  • John W. Keating

    (U. of Kansas)

Abstract

We measure the economic capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory. Based on Barnett’s [4] definition of the economic stock of money, we estimate the expected discounted flow of expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. We use forecasts based on martingale expectations, asymmetric vector autoregressive expectations, and the Bayesian vector autoregressive expectations. We find the resulting capital-stock index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Unja Chae & John W. Keating, 2006. "The discounted economic stock of money with VAR forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 51, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:51
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    4. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    5. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
    6. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005.
    7. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    11. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-283, May.
    12. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    13. William A. Barnett, 2000. "The User Cost of Money," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 6-10, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
    15. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A., 2006. "Supply of Money," MPRA Paper 419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan J., 2008. "Toward a bias corrected currency equivalent index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 448-451, September.
    3. Kelly, Logan J. & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2011. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 768-774, April.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2015. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 58-78, January.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Jinan, 2019. "User cost of credit card services under risk with intertemporal nonseparability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 18-35.
    6. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Stock of Money and Why You Should Care," MPRA Paper 11455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    9. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Currency Equivalent Index and the Current Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 7176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 1, pages 1-51, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
    13. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    14. Kelly, Logan, 2007. "Measuring the Economic Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 4914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sunil Paul & M. Ramachandran, 2013. "Do Currency Equivalent Monetary Aggregates Have an Edge over Their Simple Sum Counterparts?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(2), pages 107-143, December.
    16. repec:wrv:wpaper:1002 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary aggregation; discounted economic capital stock; VAR; robustness; capital asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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