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Political Instability and Inflation in Pakistan

Author

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  • Safdar Ullah Khan

    (Bond University, Queensland, Australia.)

  • Omar Farooq Saqib

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of political instability on inflation in Pakistan. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments and using data from 1951-2007, we examine this link in two different models. The results of the ‘monetary’ model suggest that the effects of monetary determinants are rather marginal and that they depend upon the political environment of Pakistan. The ‘nonmonetary’ model’s findings explicitly establish a positive association between measures of political instability and inflation. This is further confirmed on analyses based on interactive dummies that reveal political instability significantly leading to high (above average) inflation. Length: 24 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Political Instability and Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 29, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:29
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    Cited by:

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    3. Minten, Bart & Goeb, Joseph & Zin Win, Khin & Pye Zone, Phoo, 2023. "Agricultural value chains in a fragile state: The case of rice in Myanmar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Khansa Zaman & Muhammad Saeed Rana & Umer Iftikhar, 2019. "A Multilevel Analysis of Job Demands and Intention to Resign Through Perceived Service Recovery Performance," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 67-82, June.
    5. Syed Ozair Ali, 2012. "Power, Profits and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4693, eSocialSciences.
    6. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    7. Uddin, Md Akther & Ali, Md Hakim & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Political stability and growth: An application of dynamic GMM and quantile regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 610-625.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Has political instability contributed to price clustering on Fiji's stock market?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 125-130.
    9. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2019. "Monetary Policy, Growth and Employment in Developing Areas: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza & Abounoori, Abbas Ali & Mohammadi, Teymour, 2014. "The Effect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Inflation in Iran," MPRA Paper 55827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.
    11. Syed Ozair Ali, 2011. "Power, Profits and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 43, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    12. Taoufik Bouraoui & Helmi Hammami, 2017. "Does political instability affect exchange rates in Arab Spring countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(55), pages 5627-5637, November.
    13. Uddin , Ijaz, 2020. "What determine inflation in Pakistan: an investigation through structural equation modeling by using time series data for a period from 1975 to 2017," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 32(4), pages 54-72.
    14. Florence Barugahara, 2015. "The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 56-73, March.
    15. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
    16. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    17. Ali, Syed Ozair, 2011. "Power, Profit and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," EconStor Preprints 157853, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Muhammad Jalib Sikandar & Fazale Wahid, 2019. "Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan; Role of Uncertain Economic and Political Conditions," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 83-106, June.
    19. Uddin, Md Akther & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "War and peace: why is political stability pivotal for economic growth of OIC countries?," MPRA Paper 71678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Muhammad Shabbir & Imrab Shaheen & Fahrat Qayyum, 2020. "Domestic Investment in Pakistan: An Analysis Across Different Political Regimes," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 344-351.
    21. Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    22. Muhammad Akmal, 2011. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 1-9.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political instability; inflation; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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