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Short-Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan

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  • Mahmood ul Hasan Khan

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

The study provides an empirical update on the impact of an unanticipated change in monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables (output growth and inflation) in Pakistan. We use monthly data and multivariate structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) technique using long-run restrictions based on standard aggregate demand and supply model of the economy. The results indicate that an unanticipated positive shock in monetary policy leads to: (1) an increase in industrial output, which reverts to its original level over 23 to 32 month horizon; (2) an increase in inflation; and (3) nominal (monetary) shocks remain the dominant factor in explaining variation in inflation as compared to supply side disturbances. Transmission mechanism is much faster in case of prices compared to output, as over 75 percent change in CPI is realized during 12 months after the shock and this impact reaches the level of over 90 percent during 18 months. Sensitivity of these results to another specification indicates that response patterns of both industrial production index and CPI remain unchanged. Length: 28 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmood ul Hasan Khan, 2008. "Short-Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 22, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:22
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. AYE & Rangan GUPTA, 2012. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Real Farm Prices In South Africa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 147-158.
    2. Zafar Hayat & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2020. "Assessing the Role of Money versus Interest Rate in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 101-114.
    3. Kashif Munir & Abdul Qayyum, 2014. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 843-864, May.
    4. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    5. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2014. "Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    7. Naseem Faraz & Zainab Iftikhar, 2017. "The Regional Asymmetric Responses To Central Bank’S Monetary Policy In Pakistan," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 351-364, March.
    8. Rozina Shaheen, 2020. "Credit market conditions and impact of monetary policy in a developing economy context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 409-425, May.
    9. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "A Note on Food Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 45009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2013.
    10. Malik, M. Fahad & Awan, Dr Masood Sarwar & Malik, Dr Waseem Shahid, 2020. "Macroeconomic Shocks: Short-Run versus Long-Run Perspectives," MPRA Paper 99103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Salman Ali Shah & Chen He & Mao Yu & Wang Xiaoqin, 2016. "Exchange Rate Channel and Economic Growth: Empirical Investigation in a Developing Country’s Setup," International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(9), pages 69-74, 09-2016.
    12. Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "Role of Demand and Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hanif, M Nadim & Hyder, Zulfiqar & Lodhi, M Amin Khan & Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Batool, Irem, 2008. "A small-size macroeconometric model for Pakistan economy," MPRA Paper 22930, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; central bank; SVAR; long-run restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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