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The cost channel of monetary policy: the case of the United States in the period 1959-2018

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  • Maria Chiara Cucciniello

    (Roma Tre University)

  • Matteo Deleidi

    (Roma Tre University)

  • Enrico Sergio Levrero

Abstract

In light of the literature on the ‘price puzzle’, this paper shows that a positive effect of a tightening of monetary policy on the level of prices should be considered a normal phenomenon rather than an ‘anomaly’ or a ‘specific regime phenomenon’ connected to passive behaviour of the Central Bank in response to changes in the inflation rate. In order to assess this effect of monetary policy on the level of prices, we estimate SVAR models based on US monthly data for the period 1959-2018. Alternative measures of price and inflation expectations are also taken into consideration to avoid feasible spurious correlation. Finally, all selected models are estimated along four different sub-samples to consider different monetary policy regimes. Our findings show that the ‘price puzzle’ exists irrespective of both the passive (active) behaviour of the Central Bank and the inclusion of price expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Chiara Cucciniello & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "The cost channel of monetary policy: the case of the United States in the period 1959-2018," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0262, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0262
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Cristina Barbieri Goes & Joana David Avritzer, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Distribution and Autonomous Demand in the US," Working Papers 2307, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Enrico Sergio Levrero & Giacomo Sbrenna, 2022. "Some Factors Affecting US Capital Profitability over the Last Decades," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 16(2), pages 77-101, December.
    3. Mehmet Ulug & Sayım Işık & Mehmet Mert, 2023. "The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2855-2887, August.
    4. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Puzzle; Structural Vector Autoregressions; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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