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Productivity, Commodity Prices and the Real Exchange Rate: The Long-Run Behavior of the Canada-US Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ehsan U. Choudhri

    (Department of Economics, Carleton University, Canada)

  • Lawrence L. Schembri

    (Bank of Canada, Canada)

Abstract

The paper examines the Canada-U.S. real exchange rate since the early 1970’s to test two popular explanations of the long-run real exchange rate based on the influence of sectoral productivities and commodity prices. The empirical analysis finds that both variables exert a significant long-run effect. However, the relation for the real exchange rate has shifted as the effect of each variable has become stronger and a positive trend is present since 1990. The effect of productivity, moreover, is opposite to that predicted by the standard Balassa-Samuelson theory. An explanation of these findings is suggested based on a general-equilibrium model that includes differentiated traded manufactures and homogeneous commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2013. "Productivity, Commodity Prices and the Real Exchange Rate: The Long-Run Behavior of the Canada-US Exchange Rate," Working Paper series 45_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:45_13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    3. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2018. "Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1543-1581, June.
    4. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2020. "Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2019. "Oil prices and real exchange rates in the NAFTA region," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 253-264.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Productivity; Commodity prices; Balassa-Samuelson model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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