IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed017/516.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Asymmetric Transmission of China's Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Zha

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Kaiji Chen

    (Emory University)

Abstract

China monetary policy, as well as its transmission into the economy, is yet to be understood by researchers and policymakers. We propose a new estimation method and use it to quantify the monetary transmission of China's monetary policy within the endogenous-switching nonlinear SVAR framework. We find strong evidence that contributions of monetary policy shocks to the GDP fluctuation are asymmetric across different states of the economy. The effect of monetary policy on output is supported more by medium and long term bank loans than by short term bank loans. This is especially true for the shortfall state, in which an increase of M2 is channeled disproportionally into MLT loans. These findings highlight the role of M2 growth as a primary instrument and the bank lending channel to investment as a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy. Our analysis shows that China monetary policy has unbalanced effects on consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Zha & Kaiji Chen, 2017. "The Asymmetric Transmission of China's Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2017/paper_516.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    3. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Miao Liu, 2016. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 113-144, July.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    7. Chang, Chun & Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    9. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    10. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio, 2022. "Banks, Liquidity Management, and Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 391-454, January.
    11. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    12. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    13. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    14. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    15. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    18. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaiji Chen & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Arias, Jonas E. & Caldara, Dario & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2019. "The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Stefan Schiman-Vukan & Harald Badinger, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates," WIFO Working Papers 608, WIFO.
    4. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Caldara, Dario & Arias, Jonas E., 2016. "The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identi," CEPR Discussion Papers 11674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2018. "Inference in structural vector autoregressions when the identifying assumptions are not fully believed: Re-evaluating the role of monetary policy in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 48-65.
    7. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    8. Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    9. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Statistical inference for independent component analysis: Application to structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 111-126.
    10. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    11. Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2020. "The transition of China's monetary policy regime: Before and after the four trillion RMB stimulus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 273-303.
    12. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1037-1061, August.
    13. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2018. "Inference in structural vector autoregressions when the identifying assumptions are not fully believed: Re-evaluating the role of monetary policy in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 48-65.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Edward Herbst & Dario Caldara, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Credit Spreads, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 899, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    17. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    18. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    19. Dery, Cosmas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2021. "Interest Rates, Money, And Economic Activity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1842-1891, October.
    20. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2009. "Fundamental Economic Shocks and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1515-1555, December.
    21. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.