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Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Nicolini

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Constantino Hevia

    (Universidad Di Tella)

  • Joao Ayres

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

We show that a small number of commodities prices can explain alarge fraction of the volatility in bilateral real exchange rates between developed economies. We analyze the real exchange rates between the United Sates and Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. We show that with up to six commodites we can explain between 50% and 80% of the volatility of those three real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Nicolini & Constantino Hevia & Joao Ayres, 2015. "Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 182, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2021. "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith," Working Papers 89, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    2. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Adediran, Idris & Salisu, Afees & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E, 2020. "To “ECO” or not to “ECO”? Evidence for the single currency agenda of ECOWAS," MPRA Paper 109680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. González-Rozada, Martín & Ruffo, Hernán, 2024. "Do trade agreements contribute to the decline in labor share? Evidence from Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Bondatti, Massimiliano & Rillo, Giovanni, 2022. "Commodity tail-risk and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    8. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carlos Esquivel & Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Lessons from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," Staff Report 608, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    11. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Wang, Wenhao & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2023. "Commodity price effects on currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Trabelsi, Nader & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Do shipping freight markets impact commodity markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 986-1014.
    15. Andrés García-Mirantes & Beatriz Larraz & Javier Población, 2020. "A Proposal to Fix the Number of Factors on Modeling the Dynamics of Futures Contracts on Commodity Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Yépez, Carlos & Dzikpe, Francis, 2022. "Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 476-492.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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