IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w202303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A macroprudential look into the risk-return framework of banks’ profitability

Author

Listed:
  • Joana Passinhas

Abstract

Ensuring the resilience of the financial system implies managing a trade-off between expected bank profitability and tail risk in bank returns. To describe this trade-off, we estimate a dynamic quantile regression model using bank-level data for Portugal that links future bank profitability to the current cyclical systemic risk environment net of the prevailing level of capital-based resilience (residual cyclical systemic risk). We find that an increase in residual cyclical systemic risk negatively affects the conditional distribution of bank profitability at the medium-term projection horizons, confirming the findings in the literature. We propose a novel calibration rule for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), which is flexible enough to accommodate different preferences of the policymaker and factors in the prevailing levels of cyclical systemic risk and capital-based resilience. We illustrate the operationalisation of this rule under different assumptions for the policymaker preferences and show how tightening capital requirements alters the risk-return relationship of future profitability in the banking sector. We find evidence that increasing the CCyB rate improves the outlook for medium-term downside risk in bank profitability and worsens the outlook for short-term expected profitability, stressing the tradeoff faced by the policymaker when deploying policy instruments and the misalignment in the horizons at which costs and benefits take place.

Suggested Citation

  • Joana Passinhas, 2023. "A macroprudential look into the risk-return framework of banks’ profitability," Working Papers w202303, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp202303.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    2. Cyril Couaillier & Valerio Scalone, 2021. "Risk-to-Buffer: Setting Cyclical and Structural Capital Buffers through Banks Stress Tests," Working papers 830, Banque de France.
    3. Virginie Coudert & Julien Idier, 2018. "Reducing model risk in early warning systems for banking crises in the euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 98-116.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joana Passinhas & Ana Pereira, 2023. "A macroprudential look into the risk-return framework of banks’ profitability," Working Papers REM 2023/0265, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Cuesta, Lizeth & Ruiz, Yomara, 2021. "Efecto de la globalización sobre la desigualdad. Un estudio global para 104 países usando regresiones cuantílicas [Effect of globalization on inequality. A global study for 104 countries using quan," MPRA Paper 111022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jorge E. Galán & María Rodríguez Moreno, 2020. "At-risk measures and financial stability," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    4. Ibrahim Mohamed Ali Ali & Imed Attiaoui & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2022. "The Effect of Urbanization and Industrialization on Income Inequality: An Analysis Based on the Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 29-50, May.
    5. Łukasz Jarosław Kozar & Robert Matusiak & Marta Paduszyńska & Adam Sulich, 2022. "Green Jobs in the EU Renewable Energy Sector: Quantile Regression Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "The Least developed countries' TRIPS Waiver and the Strength of Intellectual Property Protection," EconStor Preprints 271537, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Yu, Linyue & Wilcox-Gök, Virginia, 2015. "The impact of maternal depression on children’s cognitive development: An analysis based on panel quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 107-109.
    8. Martin Binder, 2016. "Revisiting Cheerful Jane and Miserable John: the impact of income, good health, social contacts and education declines with increasing subjective well-being," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 544-553, May.
    9. Miao, Yang & Razzaq, Asif & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday & Awosusi, Abraham Ayobamiji, 2022. "Do renewable energy consumption and financial globalisation contribute to ecological sustainability in newly industrialized countries?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 688-697.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adeabah, David, 2023. "Global value chains in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of business regulations, policies and institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2023. "Measuring heterogeneity in hospital productivity: a quantile regression approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 15-43, February.
    12. Hamilton, Timothy L. & Wichman, Casey J., 2018. "Bicycle infrastructure and traffic congestion: Evidence from DC's Capital Bikeshare," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-93.
    13. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong & Oka, Tatsushi, 2018. "Quantile treatment effects in difference in differences models under dependence restrictions and with only two time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 395-413.
    14. Sarah Guillou & Lionel Nesta Author-Workplace-Name :Ofce Sciences-po,gredeg Cnrs and Skema Business School, 2015. "Markup heterogeneity, export status and the establishment of the euro Classification-JEL :C5,D43,F61,L16,L60," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    15. Galina Besstremyannaya & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Reconsideration of a simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 292-308.
    16. Nordman, Christophe J. & Rakotomanana, Faly & Roubaud, François, 2016. "Informal versus Formal: A Panel Data Analysis of Earnings Gaps in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.
    18. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    19. Alessia Matano & Paolo Naticchioni, 2017. "The Extent of Rent Sharing along the Wage Distribution," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 751-777, December.
    20. Gnangnon Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Domestic Trade Policy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-14, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.