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Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Gaurav Khanna

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Carlos Medina

    (Banco de la Republica de Colombia)

  • Anant Nyshadham,

    (Boston College & NBER)

  • Jorge Tamayo

    (Harvard University. Harvard Business School,)

Abstract

Canonical models of crime emphasize economic incentives. Yet, causal evidence of sorting into criminal occupations in response to individual-level variation in incentives is limited. We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellίn over a decade. We exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive benefits if not formally employed, to test whether a higher cost to formal-sector employment induces crime. Regression discontinuity estimates show this policy generated reductions in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized crime, but no effects on crimes of impulse or opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham, & Jorge Tamayo, 2019. "Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 14, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:esocpu:14
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Christian Posso & Jorge Tamayo, 2021. "Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 97-114, March.
    2. Blattman, Christopher & Lessing, Benjamin & Tobon, Santiago & Duncan, Gustavo, 2021. "Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance," SocArXiv 5nyqs, Center for Open Science.
    3. Manea, Roxana Elena & Piraino, Patrizio & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Garg, Teevrat & McCord, Gordon C. & Montfort, Aleister, 2020. "Can Social Protection Reduce Environmental Damages?," IZA Discussion Papers 13247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; organized crime; informality; occupational choice; gangs; Medellίn;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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