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Oil Tail Risks and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Oil-Price: Evidence from Over 150 Years of Data

Author

Listed:
  • Afees A. Salisu

    (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

We examine the predictive value of tail risks of oil returns for the realized variance of oil returns using monthly data for the modern oil industry (1859:10-2020:10). The Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework is employed to generate the tail risks for both 1% and 5% VaRs across four variants of the CAViaR framework. We find evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability emanating from both 1% and 5% tail risks. Given the importance of real-time oil-price volatility forecasts, our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Oil Tail Risks and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Oil-Price: Evidence from Over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 202146, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202146
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Nasir & Saleem, Asima & Ozkan, Oktay, 2023. "Do geopolitical oil price risk influence stock market returns and volatility of Pakistan: Evidence from novel non-parametric quantile causality approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Cheng, WeiJin & Ming, Kai & Ullah, Mirzat, 2024. "Oil price volatility prediction using out-of-sample analysis – Prediction efficiency of individual models, combination methods, and machine learning based shrinkage methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    3. Qian, Lihua & Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Global tail risk and oil return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Forecasting stock-market tail risk and connectedness in advanced economies over a century: The role of gold-to-silver and gold-to-platinum price ratios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Oil tail risks and the realized variance of consumer prices in advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023. "Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Tail Risks; Realized Variance of Oil-Price; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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