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Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Hossein Hassani

    (Research Institute for Energy Management and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran)

  • Emmanuel Silva

    (Fashion Business School, London College of Fashion, University of the Arts London, 272 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7EY)

Abstract

We use a boosting algorithm to forecast changes in three income- and three consumption-based inequality measures. We study quarterly UK data covering the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1. We find that the boosted forecasting models, at forecasting horizons of up to one year, have predictive value for changes in the six different inequality measures. Evidence of predictability is strong when we use information criteria that result in relatively parsimonious forecasting models. In addition to lagged inequality measures, stock-market developments and fiscal deficits and, for the consumption-based inequality measures at a forecast horizon of four quarters, economic policy uncertainty and output growth turn out to be relatively important predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Predictability; Boosting; UK data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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