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Time-Varying Persistence of Inflation: Evidence from a Wavelet-Based Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Heni Boubaker

    (IPAG LAB, IPAG Business School, France)

  • Giorgio Canarella

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas, USA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas, USA)

Abstract

We propose a new long-memory model with a time-varying fractional integration parameter, evolving non-linearly according to a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) specification. To estimate the time-varying fractional integration parameter, we implement a method based on the wavelet approach, using the instantaneous least squares estimator (ILSE). The empirical results show the relevance of the modeling approach and provide evidence of regime change in inflation persistence that contributes to a better understanding of the inflationary process in the US. Most importantly, these empirical findings remind us that a "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy is unlikely to work in all circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Heni Boubaker & Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Time-Varying Persistence of Inflation: Evidence from a Wavelet-Based Approach," Working Papers 201647, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201647
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    2. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Gupta Rangan & Miller Stephen M., 2021. "Long-memory modeling and forecasting: evidence from the U.S. historical series of inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(5), pages 289-310, December.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Modeling U.S. Historical Time-Series Prices and Inflation Using Various Linear and Nonlinear Long-Memory Approaches," Working Papers 201683, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Živkov, Dejan & Balaban, Suzana & Simić, Milica, 2024. "Hedging gas in a multi-frequency semiparametric CVaR portfolio," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying long-memory; LSTAR model; MODWT algorithm; ILSE estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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