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The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics

Author

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  • Aktas, Erkan
  • Özenç, Çiğdem
  • Arıca, Feyza

Abstract

This study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year.

Suggested Citation

  • Aktas, Erkan & Özenç, Çiğdem & Arıca, Feyza, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 8658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesser PALADINES, 2017. "Oil Price and Real GDP Growth of Ecuador: A Vector Autoregressive Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 71-78, March.
    2. Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer, 2016. "The Effects of Fluctuations of Oil Price on Economic Growth of Libya," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(2), pages 17-29, December.
    3. Jesser Roberto Paladines Amaiquema, 2017. "Is Ecuador Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Other Macroeconomic Variables Cointegrated? An Autoregressive Distribution Lag Bound Test Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 9-13.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; VAR; Macroeconomics; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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