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Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia: An Asymmetry Analysis

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  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen
  • Maki Nayeri, Majid

Abstract

Previous research considered impacts of monetary and output uncertainty on the demand for money in Australia using a linear model and found that while output volatility has significantly positive effects, money supply volatility does not. Furthermore, predictive power of the linear model was very low. In this paper we use a nonlinear model and a new measure of uncertainty known as policy uncertainty and show that this new measure has significantly long-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Australia. Due to nonlinear adjustment of policy uncertainty measure, the new nonlinear model has a very high predictive power. The adjusted R2 moves from 0.30 in the linear model to 0.80 in the nonlinear model.

Suggested Citation

  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Australia: An Asymmetry Analysis," MPRA Paper 82846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82846
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    Cited by:

    1. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 219-234, April.
    3. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on demand for money in developed countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Demir, Ender & Simonyan, Serdar & García-Gómez, Conrado-Diego & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of bitcoin on altcoins: evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    5. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Gurcan Aygun & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1741-1769, October.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the United Kingdom: Are the effects asymmetric?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 76-84.
    8. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    11. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    12. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R. & Mba, Ifeoma C. & Ojonta, Obed I. & Orji, Anthony, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    13. Long, Shaobo & Zuo, Yulan & Tian, Hao, 2023. "Asymmetries in multi-target monetary policy rule and the role of uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 278-296.
    14. Xiaoyue Chen & Bin Li & Andrew C. Worthington, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3441-3474, September.
    15. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar & Arwatchanakarn, Popkarn, 2020. "The effect of economic uncertainty on narrow money demand and its stability in New Zealand: An empirical investigation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 88-100.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Demand; Australia; Policy Uncertainty; Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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