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The size and effects of emigration and remittances in the Western-Balkans: Forecasting based on a Delphi process

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  • Petreski, Marjan
  • Petreski, Blagica
  • Tumanoska, Despina
  • Narazani, Edlira
  • Kazazi, Fatush
  • Ognjanov, Galjina
  • Jankovic, Irena
  • Mustafa, Arben
  • Kochovska, Tereza

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in four Western-Balkan countries: Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo, through application of a qualitative forecasting method: a Delphi questionnaire. We solicited consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: 10 experts and 20 receivers were consulted per country in three subsequent rounds - two on the same group, and a third cross-round whereby average answers of receivers were given to experts, and vice versa. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With lower consensus, results forecast that emigration will decelerate in Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo, and will accelerate in Serbia by 2021. Emigration effects for the society have been forecasted to be predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecasted to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken it in Albania. In all four countries, expert and receivers were in agreement that remittances will continue to support current consumption only. On the other hand, Macedonians lacked consensus on remittances’ effect on the labour market, whereby experts agreed that remittances will support inactivity, while receivers – employment. On the other hand, there has been a consensus achieved in the other three countries that remittances will support labour-market activity.

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  • Petreski, Marjan & Petreski, Blagica & Tumanoska, Despina & Narazani, Edlira & Kazazi, Fatush & Ognjanov, Galjina & Jankovic, Irena & Mustafa, Arben & Kochovska, Tereza, 2017. "The size and effects of emigration and remittances in the Western-Balkans: Forecasting based on a Delphi process," MPRA Paper 75512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75512
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    Cited by:

    1. Anca Mehedintu & Georgeta Soava & Mihaela Sterpu, 2019. "The Effect of Remittances on Poverty in the Emerging Countries of the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Bucevska Vesna, 2022. "Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South-East European Countries," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 79-94, June.
    3. Arian Tahiri & Faruk Ahmeti & Burim Prenaj, 2023. "The Effect of International Migrant Remittances on Employment Patterns: Evidence from Kosovo," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 126-142.
    4. Anca Mehedintu & Georgeta Soava & Mihaela Sterpu, 2019. "Remittances, Migration and Gross Domestic Product from Romania’s Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. World Bank Group & Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, 2017. "Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 26395, The World Bank Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    remittances; emigration; forecasting; Delphi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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