IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/74851.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Chakraborty, Debashis
  • Mukherjee, Jaydeep
  • Lee, Jaewook

Abstract

The deepening waves of globalization since late eighties and the growth in the international integrated production networks (IPN) over the past decade have significantly increased both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and merchandise trade flows. India is no exception to this trend, whose share in global FDI inward stock and global merchandise exports have increased from 0.08 percent to 1.13 percent and 0.51 percent to 1.60 percent over 1989-2015 respectively. The current paper attempts to explain the influence of FDI inflows on India’s exports through a time series analysis with quarterly data over the period 1990-91 (Q1) to 2015-16 (Q4). The empirical analysis indicates that while exports influence FDI inflows, the reverse is not true in the Indian context. The result underlines the fact that FDI inflows in the country may primarily be targeting the growing domestic sector, rather than utilizing the domestic resources for reaching the world market. It also suggests that there exist further scope for better utilization of the India-centric trade and investment agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74851
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74851/1/MPRA_paper_74851.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Aggarwal, 2002. "Liberalisation, Multinational Enterprises and Export Performance: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 119-137.
    2. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, April.
    3. Subhasis Bera & Shikha Gupta, "undated". "South-South FDI vs North-South FDI: A Comparative Analysis in the Context of India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 238, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    4. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu, 2007. "Industrial Linkages and Export Spillovers from FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 105-134, January.
    5. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    6. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
    7. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    8. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Yoong-Deok Jeon, 1992. "The determinants of Korean foreign direct investment in manufacturing industries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 527-542, September.
    10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    11. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    12. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2003. "The complex integration strategies of multinationals and cross country dependencies in the structure of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 293-314, August.
    13. Premachandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 1995. "Developing with Foreign Investment: Malaysia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(1), pages 9-22, January.
    14. Cabral, Luis, 1995. "Sunk Costs, Firm Size and Firm Growth," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 161-172, June.
    15. Sharma, Kishor, 2000. "Export Growth In India: Has FDI Played a Role?," Center Discussion Papers 28372, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    16. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    17. Kishor Sharma, 2000. "Export Growth in India: Has FDI Played a Role," Working Papers 816, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    18. Krugman, Paul, 1983. "New Theories of Trade among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 343-347, May.
    19. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    20. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    21. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    22. Fukunishi, Takahiro, 2010. "FDI and Export Participation of Local Firms in Africa: The Case of the Kenyan Garment Industry," IDE Discussion Papers 232, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    23. Rashmi Banga, 2006. "The export-diversifying impact of Japanese and US foreign direct investments in the Indian manufacturing sector," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(4), pages 558-568, July.
    24. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    25. Jose De Gregorio, 2003. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources in Economic Development," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 196, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    27. Ali M Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance: Empirical Evidence," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 430-445, September.
    28. Roger Svensson, 1996. "Effects of overseas production on home country exports: Evidence based on Swedish multinationals," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(2), pages 304-329, September.
    29. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1981. "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 488-494, November.
    30. Lederman, Daniel, 2011. "Large devaluations, foreign direct investment and exports : a speculative note," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5619, The World Bank.
    31. Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Miankhel, Adil & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 22763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 2021. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 3, pages 47-67, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    33. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    34. Horst, Thomas, 1972. "The Industrial Composition of U. S. Exports and Subsidiary Sales to the Canadian Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 37-45, March.
    35. Ito, Tadashi, 2012. "Export platform foreign direct investment : theory and evidence," IDE Discussion Papers 378, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    36. Chiara Franco & Subash Sasidharan, 2009. "Fdi, Export Spillover And Firm Heterogeneity - An Application To The Indian Manufacturing Case," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 06-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    37. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Rahul Sen, 2002. "A Decade of Trade Reforms in India," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 3(4), pages 87-100, October.
    38. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    39. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2.
    40. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    41. Salvador Barrios & Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2003. "Explaining Firms’ Export Behaviour: R&D, Spillovers and the Destination Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 475-496, September.
    42. Frédérique Bec & Charbel Bassil, 2009. "Federal Funds Rate Stationarity: New Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 867-872.
    43. Sharma, Kishor, 2003. "Factors determining India's export performance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-446, June.
    44. Santi Chaisrisawatsuk & Wisit Chaisrisawatsuk, 2007. "Imports, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment Interactions and Their Effects," Working Papers 4507, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    45. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496, November.
    46. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-308, May.
    48. Malabika Roy & Saikat Sinha Roy (ed.), 2016. "International Trade and International Finance," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-81-322-2797-7, February.
    49. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    50. Greenaway, David & Sousa, Nuno & Wakelin, Katharine, 2004. "Do domestic firms learn to export from multinationals?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 1027-1043, November.
    51. Glick,Reuven (ed.), 1998. "Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521623230.
    52. Yamawaki, Hideki, 1991. "Exports and Foreign Distributional Activities: Evidence on Japanese Firms in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 294-300, May.
    53. Nag, Biswajit & Mukherjee, Jaydeep, 2012. "The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 519-526.
    54. Gu, Weishi & Awokuse, Titus O. & Yuan, Yan, 2008. "The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China's Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6453, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    55. Johnson, Andreas, 2006. "FDI and Exports: the case of the High Performing East Asian Economies," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 57, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    56. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    57. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    58. Sharma, K., 2000. "Export Growth in India: Has FDI Played a Role?," Papers 816, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    59. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496.
    60. Edward M. Graham, 2004. "Do export processing zones attract FDI and its benefits," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 87-103, March.
    61. Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 1996. "Multinationals, Linkages, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 852-873, September.
    62. Dilek Aykut & Andrea Goldstein, 2006. "Developing Country Multinationals: South-South Investment Comes of Age," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 257, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Sayed Farrukh Ahmed & A. K. M. Mohsin & Syed Far Abid Hossain, 2023. "Relationship between FDI Inflows and Export Performance: An Empirical Investigation by Considering Structural Breaks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Roseline Misati & Kethi Ngoka, 2021. "Constraints on the performance and competitiveness of Tanzania's manufacturing exports," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2024. "Growth in Foreign Trade in Liberalized India: The Relevance of FDI," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(1), pages 252-267, February.
    5. Van Ha & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi Hassan, 2020. "Does foreign investment benefit the exporting activities of Vietnamese firms?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1619-1646, June.
    6. Shib Sankar Jana & Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "How far is FDI relevant to India’s foreign trade growth? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Jaydeep Mukherjee & Debashis Chakraborty & Tanaya Sinha, 2013. "How has FDI influenced Current Account Balance In India? Time Series Results in presence of Endogenous Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1317, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    3. Radovan Kastratović, 2020. "The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3142-3183, December.
    4. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    5. Naoto Jinji & Xingyuan Zhang & Shoji Haruna, 2022. "Deep Integration, Global Firms, and Technology Spillovers," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-981-16-5210-3, June.
    6. Raphaël Chiappini, 2016. "Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 403-425, June.
    7. Uchida, Yoko & Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2015. "Theory and empirics of Markusen type multinationals," IDE Discussion Papers 516, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. Amiti, Mary & Wakelin, Katharine, 2003. "Investment liberalization and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-126, October.
    9. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2013. "Trade linkages of inward and outward FDI: Evidence from Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 224-230.
    10. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "General-Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
    12. Antrà s, Pol & Yeaple, Stephen R., 2014. "Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 55-130, Elsevier.
    13. Liu, Xiaming & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2001. "Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 190-202.
    14. Abdoul G. Mijiyawa, 2017. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Exports? Evidence from African Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1934-1957, September.
    15. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    16. Andrzej Cieślik, 2020. "What attracts multinational enterprises from the new EU member states to Poland?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 253-269, June.
    17. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan & Szeidl, Adam, 2006. "Optimal integration strategies for the multinational firm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 216-238, September.
    18. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & María Montero-Muñoz, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-323, July.
    19. Gu, Weishi & Awokuse, Titus O. & Yuan, Yan, 2008. "The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China's Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6453, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Koi Nyen Wong & Soo Khoon Goh, 2013. "Outward FDI, merchandise and services trade: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 276-291, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Capital Movements; India; exports; causality analysis; endogenous breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.