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The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries

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  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator (FSI) can be used to predict the probability that a currency crisis occurs. The FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) is employed. Two different definitions for currency crises are used to evaluate whether they induce different results in the analysis. In general, the results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," MPRA Paper 72102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72102
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; foreign exchange; fiscal sustainability; probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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