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Nonstationary Z-score measures

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  • Mare, Davide Salvatore
  • Moreira, Fernando
  • Rossi, Roberto

Abstract

In this work we develop advanced techniques for measuring bank insolvency risk. More specifically, we contribute to the existing body of research on the Z-Score. We develop bias reduction strategies for state-of-the-art Z-Score measures in the literature. We introduce novel estimators whose aim is to effectively capture nonstationary returns; for these estimators, as well as for existing ones in the literature, we discuss analytical confidence regions. We exploit moment-based error measures to assess the effectiveness of these estimators. We carry out an extensive empirical study that contrasts state-of-the-art estimators to our novel ones on over ten thousand banks. Finally, we contrast results obtained by using Z-score estimators against business news on the banking sector obtained from Factiva. Our work has important implications for researchers and practitioners. First, accounting for the degree of nonstationarity in returns yields a more accurate quantification of the degree of solvency. Second, our measure allows researchers to factor in the degree of uncertainty in the estimation due to the availability of data while estimating the overall risk of bank insolvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Mare, Davide Salvatore & Moreira, Fernando & Rossi, Roberto, 2015. "Nonstationary Z-score measures," MPRA Paper 67840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67840
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    2. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    3. Davide Salvatore Mare & Dieter Gramlich, 2021. "Risk exposures of European cooperative banks: a comparative analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
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    9. Saeed, Momna & Izzeldin, Marwan & Hassan, M. Kabir & Pappas, Vasileios, 2020. "The inter-temporal relationship between risk, capital and efficiency: The case of Islamic and conventional banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Vladan Pavlovic & Goranka Knezevic & Antonio Andre Cunha Callado, 2022. "Is the Corporate Solvency Conundrum Primarily a Balkan Issue or a Broader European Continental Misunderstanding?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 72-93.
    11. Clark, Ephraim & Mare, Davide Salvatore & Radić, Nemanja, 2018. "Cooperative banks: What do we know about competition and risk preferences?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 90-101.
    12. Shaofang Li, 2021. "Quality of Bank Capital, Competition, and Risk-Taking: Some International Evidence," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3455-3488, September.
    13. Hyeongjun Kim & Hoon Cho & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Corporate Default Predictions Using Machine Learning: Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-11, August.
    14. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Anginer,Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt,Asli & Mare,Davide Salvatore, 2020. "Bank Capital and Risk in Europe and Central Asia Ten Years After the Crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9138, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank stability; prudential regulation; insolvency risk; financial distress; Z-Score;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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