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The effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance: Is there a J-curve for Vietnam? A VAR approach

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  • Khieu Van, Hoang

Abstract

This study employs a reduced-form VAR model to estimate trade balance’s responses to a positive shock to the real VND/USD exchange rate. For this purpose, we apply identification restrictions based on the conclusion by Krugman, Obstfeld and Melitz (2012), and on the theory of the AA-DD model to estimate the impulse response functions of the trade balance. We use a monthly data set of four endogenous variables and two exogenous variables from January 1995 to December 2012. Since the data of two endogenous variables is unavailable in monthly basis, we interpolate those series using Chow and Lin’s (1971) annualized approach from their annual series. Overall, we find that there exists a J-curve for Vietnam, and its effect lasts for 11 months. Particularly, the worsening effect on the trade balance becomes most severe in the third and the fourth months.

Suggested Citation

  • Khieu Van, Hoang, 2013. "The effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance: Is there a J-curve for Vietnam? A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 54490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54490
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 2004. "Estimation of the J-Curve in China," Economics Study Area Working Papers 67, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    2. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurtović Safet, 2017. "The Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 141-158, June.
    2. Safet KURTOVIC & Blerim HALILI & Nehat MAXHUNI, 2017. "Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Her Trading Partner from Southeast Europe," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 75-85, March.
    3. Kurtovic Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 181-204, December.
    4. Safet Kurtovic & Blerim Halili & Nehat Maxhuni, 2017. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia: Is There a J-Curve Effect?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(281), pages 185-210.
    5. Kurtović Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 27-36, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-curve; Trade balance; Real exchange rate; VAR; Vietnam.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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