IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/36088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Intervention Analysis on the Tokyo Grain Exchange Non- Genetically Modified and Conventional Soybean Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Aruga, Kentaka

Abstract

This paper examines how efficiently the price premium for non-genetically modified (non-GM) soybeans at the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE) react to an announcement to change the contract unit, suppliers, and expiration date on the conventional soybean futures contract. Intervention analysis is used for this purpose. The results reveal that the price premium for non-GM soybeans increases after the change and this effect remains at least for a month. Hence, prices of the two soybean futures markets did not respond quickly to the announcement and there was an informational inefficiency after the announcement occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Aruga, Kentaka, 2011. "An Intervention Analysis on the Tokyo Grain Exchange Non- Genetically Modified and Conventional Soybean Futures Market," MPRA Paper 36088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36088/8/MPRA_paper_36088.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36150/4/MPRA_paper_36150.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56250/4/MPRA_paper_36150.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parcell, Joseph L., 2001. "An Initial Look At The Tokyo Grain Exchange Non-Gmo Soybean Contract," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(1), pages 1-8.
    2. Karagozoglu, Ahmet K & Martell, Terrence F & Wang, George H K, 2003. "The Split of the S&P 500 Futures Contract: Effects on Liquidity and Market Dynamics," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 323-348, December.
    3. McCluskey, Jill J. & Grimsrud, Kristine M. & Ouchi, Hiromi & Wahl, Thomas I., 2003. "Consumer Response to Genetically Modified Food Products in Japan," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 222-231, October.
    4. Bullock, D. S. & Desquilbet, M., 2002. "The economics of non-GMO segregation and identity preservation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-99, February.
    5. Bjursell, Johan & Frino, Alex & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, George H.K., 2010. "Volatility and trading activity following changes in the size of futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 967-980, December.
    6. Larcker, David F. & Gordon, Lawrence A. & Pinches, George E., 1980. "Testing for Market Efficiency: A Comparison of the Cumulative Average Residual Methodology and Intervention Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 267-287, June.
    7. Wallace E. Huffman, 2003. "Consumers' Acceptance of (and Resistance to) Genetically Modified Foods in High-Income Countries: Effects of Labels and Information in an Uncertain Environment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1112-1118.
    8. Vitaly Guzhva, 2008. "Applying intervention analysis to financial performance data: The case of US airlines and September 11th," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 243-259, July.
    9. Aruga Kentaka, 2011. "Market Efficiency in the Non-Genetically Modified Soybean Futures Market," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    11. Randal R. Rucker & Walter N. Thurman & Jonathan K. Yoder, 2005. "Estimating the Structure of Market Reaction to News: Information Events and Lumber Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(2), pages 482-500.
    12. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Ciner, Cetin, 1997. "International transmission on information in corn futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 175-187, October.
    13. Wachenheim, Cheryl J. & Vanwechel, Tamara, 2004. "The Influence Of Environmental-Impact Information On Consumer Willingness To Pay For Products Labeled As Free Of Genetically Modified Ingredients," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(2), pages 1-13, July.
    14. John Doukas & Abdul Rahman, 1986. "Foreign currency futures and monetary policy announcements: An intervention analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 343-373, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Shnurkov & Daniil Novikov, 2018. "Analysis of the problem of intervention control in the economy on the basis of solving the problem of tuning," Papers 1811.10993, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack, 2015. "An intervention analysis on the relationship between futures prices of non-GM and GM contract soybeans in China," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196842, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Konduru, Srinivasa & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G. & Magnier, Alexandre, 2009. "GMO Testing Strategies and Implications for Trade: A Game Theoretic Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49594, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Mario F. Teisl & Julie A. Caswell, 2003. "Information Policy and Genetically Modified Food: Weighting the Benefits and Costs," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, March.
    4. Parcell, Joseph L., 2002. "Emerging Ip Markets: The Tokyo Grain Exchange Non-Gmo Soybean Contract," Working Papers 26038, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    5. Aruga, Kentaka, 2011. "Linkages among the non-genetically modified soybean, conventional soybean, and corn futures markets in the Tokyo Grain Exchange," MPRA Paper 36101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sun, Xing & Zhang, Daowei, 2011. "An event analysis of industrial timberland sales on shareholder values of major U.S. forest products firms," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 396-401, June.
    7. Anirban Banerjee & Ashok Banerjee, 2020. "Does trade size restriction affect trading behavior? Evidence from Indian single stock futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 355-373, March.
    8. Kentaka Aruga, 2011. "Are the Tokyo Grain Exchange non‐genetically modified organism (non‐GMO) and conventional soybean futures markets integrated?," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 84-97, May.
    9. Lim Kai Jie, Shawn & Chadha, Pavneet & Lau, Joshua & Potdar, Nishad, 2012. "Is the Mongolian Equity Market Efficient? Empirical Evidence from Tests of Weak-Form Efficiency," MPRA Paper 41834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zhao, Li & Gu, Haiying & Yue, Chengyan & Ahlstrom, David, 2013. "Consumer welfare and GM food labeling: A simulation using an adjusted Kumaraswamy distribution," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 58-70.
    11. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    12. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    14. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Aaryan Gupta & Vinya Dengre & Hamza Abubakar Kheruwala & Manan Shah, 2020. "Comprehensive review of text-mining applications in finance," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    17. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    18. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    19. Andrey Shternshis & Piero Mazzarisi & Stefano Marmi, 2022. "Efficiency of the Moscow Stock Exchange before 2022," Papers 2207.10476, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    20. David Peón & Anxo Calvo, 2012. "Using Behavioral Economics to Analyze Credit Policies in the Banking Industry," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 145-160.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price premium; non-genetically modified soybeans; conventional soybeans; intervention analysis; Tokyo Grain Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.