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fama and macbeth revisited: A Critique

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  • Salazar, Juan
  • Lambert, Annick

Abstract

The main conclusion of the FM study relies on the fact that the average of the slopes of 402 regressions of the monthly returns on 20 portfolios on theirs beta coefficients is positive. Considering this set of 402 slopes as a random sample drawn from the same normally distributed population, FM performed a t-test on the mean and conclude that the true mean significantly differs from zero. Then they took this result as a proof in favour of the theory that there is in the real world a perfect linear relationship between the expected return and the true beta of securities and portfolios or, in other terms, in favour of the theory that the market portfolio is efficient. In this article, we present several tests and arguments that put some shadow on these conclusions. In fact, several tests lead us to the conclusion that the 402 random observations above mentioned are not drawn from a normal (or symmetric stable) distribution, neither are they independent or identically distributed. Indeed, the most disturbing fact is that those observations are likely not independent.

Suggested Citation

  • Salazar, Juan & Lambert, Annick, 2010. "fama and macbeth revisited: A Critique," MPRA Paper 35910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35910
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tinic, Seha M. & West, Richard R., 1984. "Risk and return : Janaury vs. the rest of the year," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 561-574, December.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Fred D. Arditti, 1967. "Risk And The Required Return On Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 19-36, March.
    4. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    6. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; CAPT; Portfolio theory; Empirical tests; Hypothesis testing; Regression analysis; Spectral analysis; January anomaly;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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