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Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets

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  • LEUNG, K. Y. Charles
  • TANG, C. H. Edward

Abstract

Hong Kong is no stranger to bubbles or crisis. During the Asian Financial Crisis(AFC), the Hong Kong housing price index drops more than 50% in less than a year. The same market then experiences the Internet Bubble, the SARS attack, and recently the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper attempts to provide some “stylized facts” of the real estate markets and the macroeconomy, and follow the event-study methodology to examine whether the markets behave differently in the AFC and GFC, and discuss the possible linkage to the change in government policies (“learning effect”) and the flow of Chinese consumers and investors to Hong Kong (“China factor”).

Suggested Citation

  • LEUNG, K. Y. Charles & TANG, C. H. Edward, 2011. "Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets," MPRA Paper 31562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Serpil Canbaş & Serkan Yılmaz Kandır, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 36-52, July.
    3. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2010. "House prices, collateral constraint, and the asymmetric effect on consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-37, March.
    4. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    5. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG & Wai Yip MA & Jun ZHANG, 2014. "The Market Valuation of Interior Design and Developer Strategies: A Simple Theory and Some Evidence," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 63-107.
    5. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    6. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2019. "What do we know about Housing Supply? The case of Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 93510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dong Chen & Yanmin Gao & Mayank Kaul & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "The Role of Sponsors and External Management on the Capital Structure of Asian-Pacific REITs: The Case of Australia, Japan, and Singapore," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 197-221.
    8. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Availability, Affordability and Volatility: The Case of the Hong Kong Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 383-428.
    9. I-Chun Tsai, 2022. "The connectedness between Hong Kong and China real estate markets: spillover effect and information transmission," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 287-311, July.
    10. Edward C. H. Tang, 2021. "Speculate a lot," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 91-109, February.
    11. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2016. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Resilience of Banks to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 120-149.
    12. Terence Tai‐Leung Chong & Alex Wing‐Ho Yiu, 2019. "Nexus between visitor arrivals and residential property rents in Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 464-478, August.
    13. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Tin Cheuk Leung & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2015. "Tax-driven Bunching of Housing Market Transactions: The Case of Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 473-501.
    14. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    15. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    16. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2014. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Banks' Resilience to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 032014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regime switching; structural change; small open economy; bounded rationality; banking policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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