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Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model

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  • Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano
  • Yakub, Ma'aji Umar
  • Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode
  • Duke, Omolara

Abstract

The paper investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2007Q4 on the basis of vector error correction methodology. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria is low, slightly higher in the import than in the consumer prices, significant and persistent. A one percent shock to exchange rate, for instance, results in 14.3 and -10.5 percent pass-through effect to import and consumer prices four quarters ahead, respectively. This, among other things, suggests that exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria declines along the price chain, and partly overturns the conventional wisdom in the literature that ERPT is always considerably higher in developing and emerging economies than in developed economies. Although pass-through effect is envisaged to increase with greater integration of the economy into the global world in future, but, the fact that it was found to be incomplete implies that prices react less proportionately to exchange shock in Nigeria and this is very useful to policymakers, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Yakub, Ma'aji Umar & Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode & Duke, Omolara, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 25053, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mehmet BALCILAR & Ojonugwa USMAN & Muhammad Sani MUSA, 2020. "The Long-Run and Short-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through during the Period of Economic Reforms in Nigeria: Is it Complete or Incomplete?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 151-172, March.
    3. Ali Reza Kazerooni & Behzad Salmani & Majid Feshari, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Regime on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through under Exchange Rate Volatility (Dynamic Panel Data Approach)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(2), pages 35-50, spring.
    4. Ojonugwa Usman & Muhammad Sani Musa, 2018. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 60-67, March.
    5. Farhan AHMED & Muhammad OWAIS & Sandhya KUMARI & Rohit RAJJANI, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to macroeconomic indicators using Vector Auto Regression: Empirical evidence from Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 61-76, Autumn.
    6. Adebayo Adebiyi & Charles N. O. Mordi, 2012. "A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Oil Price Shocks And Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Inflation In Nigeria," EcoMod2012 3715, EcoMod.
    7. Olagbaju Ifeolu O & Akinbobola Temidayo O, 2016. "A Non-Linear Analysis of the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 79-91.
    8. Adekunle, Wasiu & Tiamiyu, Ajao, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Nigeria: An asymmetric approach," MPRA Paper 88797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Musti, Babagana Mala & Siddiki, Jalal Uddin, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer prices: Nigerian experience from 1986-2013," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    10. Siba Dayyabu & Ahmad Azrin Adnan & Zunaidah Sulong, 2016. "Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Nigeria (1970-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 279-287.
    11. Ahmed Mohammed, Abdullahi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 86515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2016.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; cointegration; vector error correction; impulse responses; variance compositions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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