IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/2260.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efficient Estimation of the Parameter Path in Unstable Time Series Models

Author

Listed:
  • Mueller, Ulrich
  • Petalas, Philippe-Emmanuel

Abstract

The paper investigates asymptotically efficient inference in general likelihood models with time varying parameters. Parameter path estimators and tests of parameter constancy are evaluated by their weighted average risk and weighted average power, respectively. The weight function is proportional to the distribution of a Gaussian process, and focusses on local parameter instabilities that cannot be detected with certainty even in the limit. It is shown that asymptotically, the sample information about the parameter path is efficiently summarized by a Gaussian pseudo model. This approximation leads to computationally convenient formulas for efficient path estimators and test statistics, and unifies the theory of stability testing and parameter path estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Ulrich & Petalas, Philippe-Emmanuel, 2007. "Efficient Estimation of the Parameter Path in Unstable Time Series Models," MPRA Paper 2260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2260/1/MPRA_paper_2260.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W.K., 1992. "Generic Uniform Convergence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 241-257, June.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1994. "Testing for Serial Correlation Against an ARMA(1,1) Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1077, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Zhu, Hongtu & Zhang, Heping, 2006. "Asymptotics for estimation and testing procedures under loss of identifiability," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 19-45, January.
    3. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2021. "Testing for observation-dependent regime switching in mixture autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 601-624.
    4. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1992. "An Introduction to Econometric Applications of Functional Limit Theory for Dependent Random Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1020, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Dong Jin Lee, 2020. "Optimal tests for parameter breaking process in conditional quantile models," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 479-510, July.
    6. Li, Hong & Mueller, Ulrich, 2006. "Valid Inference in Partially Unstable GMM Models," MPRA Paper 2261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2004. "Testing For Structural Change In The Presence Of Auxiliary Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1168-1202, December.
    8. Donald W. K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1995. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(3), pages 343-360.
    9. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1993. "Admissibility of the Likelihood Ratio Test When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present OnlyUnder the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1058, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    11. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
    12. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    13. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    14. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    15. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    16. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2010. "Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?," Discussion Papers 10-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    18. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    19. González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017. "Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
    20. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time Varying Parameters; Non-linear Non-Gaussian Smoothing; Weighted Average Risk; Weighted Average Power; Posterior Approximation; Contiguity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.