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A Decision Analysis Approach To Solving the Signaling Game

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  • Cobb, Barry
  • Basuchoudhary, Atin

Abstract

Decision analysis has traditionally been applied to choices under uncertainty involving a single decision maker. Game theory has been applied to solving games of strategic interaction between two or more players. Building upon recent work of van Binsbergen and Marx (2007. Exploring relations between decision analysis and game theory. Decision Anal. 4(1) 32–40.), this paper defines a modified decision-theoretic approach to solving games of strategic interaction between two players. Using this method, the choices of the two players are modeled with separate decision trees comprised entirely of chance nodes. Optimal policies are reflected in the probabilities in the decision trees of each player. In many cases, the optimal strategy for each player can be obtained by rolling back the opponent’s decision tree. Results are demonstrated for the multi-stage signaling game, which is difficult to model using decision nodes to represent strategies,as in the approach of van Binsbergen and Marx.

Suggested Citation

  • Cobb, Barry & Basuchoudhary, Atin, 2009. "A Decision Analysis Approach To Solving the Signaling Game," MPRA Paper 15119, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 May 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koller, Daphne & Milch, Brian, 2003. "Multi-agent influence diagrams for representing and solving games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 181-221, October.
    2. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Leslie M. Marx, 2007. "Exploring Relations Between Decision Analysis and Game Theory," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(1), pages 32-40, March.
    3. Huseyin Cavusoglu & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2004. "Configuration of Detection Software: A Comparison of Decision and Game Theory Approaches," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 131-148, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    2. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    4. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    5. Jesus Rios & David Rios Insua, 2012. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Counterterrorism Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 894-915, May.
    6. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    7. Du, Shaofu & Peng, Jing & Nie, Tengfei & Yu, Yugang, 2020. "Pricing strategies and mechanism choice in reward-based crowdfunding," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 951-966.
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    11. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision analysis; decision tree; game theory; mixed strategy; signaling game.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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