IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-out on the German Coal Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Breitenstein, Miriam
  • Anke, Carl-Philipp
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong
  • Walther, Thomas

Abstract

We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany due to the critical phase- out by 2038. Within a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (a slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €0.4 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and additional €14.3 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by eight years. This study also depicts the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we illustrate immediate concerns for share prices of affected companies and contributes to closing the research gap between stranded physical and financial assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Breitenstein, Miriam & Anke, Carl-Philipp & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2019. "Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-out on the German Coal Industry," MPRA Paper 101763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101763/1/MPRA_paper_101763.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    2. Miriam Breitenstein & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2021. "Environmental Hazards And Risk Management In The Financial Sector: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 512-538, April.
    3. Zhao, Stephen & Alexandroff, Alan, 2019. "Current and future struggles to eliminate coal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 511-520.
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Monasterolo, Irene & Roventini, Andrea & Foxon, Tim J., 2019. "Uncertainty of climate policies and implications for economics and finance: An evolutionary economics approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 177-182.
    6. Michaels, Robert J., 1994. "Unused and useless: The strange economics of stranded investment," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(8), pages 12-22, October.
    7. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Ben Caldecott, 2017. "Introduction to special issue: stranded assets and the environment," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    10. John Byrd & Elizabeth S. Cooperman, 2018. "Investors and stranded asset risk: evidence from shareholder responses to carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) events," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 185-202, April.
    11. Griffin, Paul A. & Jaffe, Amy Myers & Lont, David H. & Dominguez-Faus, Rosa, 2015. "Science and the stock market: Investors' recognition of unburnable carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 1-12.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. J.-F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & J. E. Viñuales & N. R. Edwards & P. B. Holden & U. Chewpreecha & P. Salas & I. Sognnaes & A. Lam & F. Knobloch, 2018. "Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 588-593, July.
    14. Rentier, Gerrit & Lelieveldt, Herman & Kramer, Gert Jan, 2019. "Varieties of coal-fired power phase-out across Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 620-632.
    15. Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula & Schumann, Diana & Vögele, Stefan & Biß, Klaus Hendrik & Shamon, Hawal & Markewitz, Peter & Többen, Johannes & Gillessen, Bastian & Gotzens, Fabian & Ernst, Anna, 2017. "Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 285-305.
    16. Jessica Jewell & Vadim Vinichenko & Lola Nacke & Aleh Cherp, 2019. "Prospects for powering past coal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 592-597, August.
    17. Nicholas Silver, 2017. "Blindness to risk: why institutional investors ignore the risk of stranded assets," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 99-113, January.
    18. Jochen Markard, 2018. "The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 628-633, August.
    19. Christina Atanasova & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves and Firm Value," NBER Working Papers 26497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kyra Bos & Joyeeta Gupta, 2018. "Climate change: the risks of stranded fossil fuel assets and resources to the developing world," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 436-453, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waldemar Karpa & Antonio Grginović, 2021. "(Not So) Stranded: The Case of Coal in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Miriam Breitenstein & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2021. "Environmental Hazards And Risk Management In The Financial Sector: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 512-538, April.
    3. Ma, Huan & Sun, Qinghan & Chen, Lei & Chen, Qun & Zhao, Tian & He, Kelun & Xu, Fei & Min, Yong & Wang, Shunjiang & Zhou, Guiping, 2023. "Cogeneration transition for energy system decarbonization: From basic to flexible and complementary multi-energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    2. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Pablo Neudorfer, 2022. "Tail risk in the fossil fuel industry: an option implied analysis around the unburnable carbon news," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 493-511, March.
    5. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Shimbar, Ali, 2021. "Environment-related stranded assets: What does the market think about the impact of collective climate action on the value of fossil fuel stocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Simshauser, Paul & Akimov, Alexandr, 2019. "Regulated electricity networks, investment mistakes in retrospect and stranded assets under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 117-133.
    9. Stefano Carattini & Suphi Sen, 2019. "Carbon Taxes and Stranded Assets: Evidence from Washington State," CESifo Working Paper Series 7785, CESifo.
    10. Robi Kurniawan & Gregory P. Trencher & Achmed S. Edianto & Imam E. Setiawan & Kazuyo Matsubae, 2020. "Understanding the Multi-Faceted Drivers of Increasing Coal Consumption in Indonesia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Pegels, Anna & Altenburg, Tilman, 2020. "Latecomer development in a “greening” world: Introduction to the Special Issue," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Patrick Gruning & Zeynep Kantur, 2023. "Stranded Capital in Production Networks: Implications for the Economy of the Euro Area," Working Papers 2023/06, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2020. "Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 281-298, October.
    16. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Zeynep Kantur, 2024. "The Impact of Decarbonization on Physical Capital Asset Utilization in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2024/01, Latvijas Banka.
    18. Waldemar Karpa & Antonio Grginović, 2021. "(Not So) Stranded: The Case of Coal in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Antoine GODIN & Emanuele CAMPIGLIO & Eric KEMP-BENEDICT, 2017. "Networks of stranded assets: A case for a balance sheet approach," Working Paper d51a41b5-00ba-40b4-abe6-5, Agence française de développement.
    20. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coal Phase-out; Energy transition; Germany; Stranded Assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.