IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pke/wpaper/pkwp1404.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion

Author

Listed:
  • Walid Qazizada
  • Engelbert Stockhammer

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of government spending on output and the size of the spending multiplier during periods of output contraction vs. expansion. It also investigates the impact of spending when the economy hits the nominal zero lower bound. It uses a panel of 21 advanced countries over the period of 1979-2011, applying a TSLS estimation technique. We find a spending multiplier of close to 1 during expansion and values of up to 3 during contractions. However, our results do not indicate a difference in the impact of spending during nominal zero lower bound periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Walid Qazizada & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2014. "Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion," Working Papers PKWP1404, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP1404.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    2. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, June.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2013. "The cyclicality of education, health, and social security government spending," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 669-672, May.
    4. Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2013. "What Drives Fiscal Multipliers? The Role of Private Wealth and Debt," IMK Working Paper 124-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    6. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    7. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    9. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    10. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    12. António Afonso & Hans Peter Grüner & Christina Kolerus, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Growth: Do Financial Crises make a Difference?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    14. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jonathan A. Parker, 2011. "On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 703-718, September.
    16. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    18. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    20. Antonio Acconcia & Giancarlo Corsetti & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2185-2209, July.
    21. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Michaillat, Pascal, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers Over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 8610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    25. António Afonso & Juan Alegre, 2011. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 703-723, December.
    26. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    28. Székely, István P. & Turrini, Alessandro & Röger, Werner, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-279, January.
    30. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    31. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    33. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    34. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    35. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    36. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    37. Hatice Ozer Balli & Bent Sørensen, 2013. "Interaction effects in econometrics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 583-603, August.
    38. Sebastian Gechert & Henner Will, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers: A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 97-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    39. Blyth, Mark, 2013. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199828302.
    40. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    42. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    43. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Botta, Alberto & Tori, Daniele, 2017. "A critique to the expansionary austerity (part III): empirical counter facts beyond theoretical weaknesses," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16387, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Guillaume Vallet, 2022. "The institutions of the people, by the people and for the people? Addressing central banks' power and social responsibility in a democracy," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(301), pages 83-102.
    3. Ant—nio Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government spending efficiency, measurement and applications: A cross-country efficiency dataset," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 3, pages 44-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    5. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 53-81, February.
    6. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2017. "Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 119-133, June.
    7. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    8. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    9. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.
    10. Paolo Piacentini, 2018. "The Demand Side vs. the Supply Side in the Analysis of Employment: The Potential for the Use of 'Employment Multipliers'," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 1, pages 105-120.
    11. Gumede, Vusi & Bila, Santos, 2022. "Applying the National Income Identity Approach in Examining Determinants of Economic Growth in South Africa," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), April.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Collin Constantine & Severin Reissl, 2020. "Explaining the Euro crisis: current account imbalances, credit booms and economic policy in different economic paradigms," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 231-266, April.
    13. Alberto Botta & Daniele Tori, 2015. "A critique to the expansionary austerity: Theoretical weaknesses and empirical counter evidence," Working Papers PKWP1511, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Bonam, Dennis & De Haan, Jakob & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2022. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy At The Effective Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 149-185, January.
    15. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Episodes on Income Inequality," wiiw Working Papers 147, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    16. Fabrício Pitombo Leite, 2015. "Taking Godley's Ratios Seriously," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 508-533, July.
    17. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2015. "Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    18. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2023. "Learning from distant cousins? Post-Keynesian Economics, Comparative Political Economy, and the Growth Models approach," Chapters, in: Thomas Palley & Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo (ed.), Varieties of Capitalism, chapter 3, pages 56-75, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2018. "Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 47-85, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
    3. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    7. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
    8. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2017. "Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 119-133, June.
    10. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    11. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    12. Thomas Warmedinger & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 139-168, December.
    13. Rilind Kabashi, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 39-69.
    14. Ana Mitreska & Sultanija Bojcheva – Terzijan, 2017. "Panel Estimation of the Impact of Foreign Banks Presence on Selected Banking Indicators in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    15. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    16. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    17. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    18. J. Andrés & J. E. Boscá & J. Ferri, 2015. "Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1048-1081, December.
    19. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    20. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger, 2020. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1262-1294, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; fiscal policy; panel analysis; output contraction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jo Michell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.