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Populist Voting and Losers’ Discontent: Does Redistribution Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Albanese

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Guglielmo Barone

    (University of Padua)

  • Guido de Blasio

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Economic roots of populism in Western countries are quite well understood but much less is known about policy implications. We study a large redistribution program that conveyed, within the EU cohesion framework, a relevant amount of money to some Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial regression discontinuity design, which exploits the allocation rule of funds. We focus on the 2013 general elections and show that municipalities favored by redistribution exhibit a drop in populism of about 5% of the mean of the dependent variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Albanese & Guglielmo Barone & Guido de Blasio, 2019. "Populist Voting and Losers’ Discontent: Does Redistribution Matter?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0239, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0239
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    5. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    6. Eveline S. van Leeuwen & Solmaria Halleck Vega, 2021. "Voting and the rise of populism: Spatial perspectives and applications across Europe," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 209-219, April.
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    8. Jan Gromadzki & Katarzyna Sałach & Michał Brzeziński, 2024. "When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 320-345, January.
    9. K. Peren Arin & Efstathios Polyzos & Marcel Thum, 2023. "The Populist Voter: A Machine Learning Approach for the Individual Characteristics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10472, CESifo.
    10. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Cuccu, Liliana & Pontarollo, Nicola, 2024. "Logistic hubs and support for radical-right populism: Evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Great or grim? Disagreement about Brexit, economic expectations and household spending," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119200, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Gold, Robert & Lehr, Jakob, 2024. "Paying off populism: EU regional policy decreases populist support," Kiel Policy Brief 172, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman, 2024. "The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 100(3), pages 213-245, May.
    16. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cotaldo & Mara Guia, 2019. "It’s not about the money! EU funds, local opportunities, and the Brexit vote," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 149, European Institute, LSE.
    17. Monturano, Gianluca & Resce, Giuliano & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "Place-Based Policies and the location of economic activity: evidence from the Italian Strategy for Inner areas," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22087, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    18. Giuseppe Albanese & Guglielmo Barone & Guido de Blasio, 2023. "The impact of place‐based policies on interpersonal income inequality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 508-530, April.
    19. Marco Di Cataldo & Elena Renzullo, 2024. "EU Money and Mayors: Does Cohesion Policy affect local electoral outcomes?," Working Papers 2024: 02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Dante Di Matteo & Ilaria Mariotti, 2021. "Italian discontent and right‐wing populism: determinants, geographies, patterns," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 371-396, April.
    21. Dana Kubenkova, 2023. "European Union Cohesion Policy and Euroscepticism: A Literature Review," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2024 0260, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    22. Mona Förtsch, 2024. "Local High School Closures and Voter Turnout: Evidence from East German Municipalities," ifo Working Paper Series 411, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    23. Andreas Bergh & Philipp C. Wichardt & Philipp Christoph Wichardt, 2024. "On Credibility and Causality in Economics: A Critical Appraisal," CESifo Working Paper Series 11224, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    populism; voting; redistribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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