IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/566.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Neary
  • Robert C. Feenstra
  • Hong Ma and D.S. Prasada Rao

Abstract

The latest World Bank estimates of real GDP per capita for China are significantly lower than previous ones. We review possible sources of this puzzle and conclude that it reflects a combination of factors, including substitution bias in consumption, reliance on urban prices which we estimate are higher than rural ones, and the use of an expenditure-weighted rather than an output-weighted measure of GDP. Taking all these together, we estimate that real per-capita GDP in China was 50% higher relative to the U.S. in 2005 than the World Bank estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Neary & Robert C. Feenstra & Hong Ma and D.S. Prasada Rao, 2011. "Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP," Economics Series Working Papers 566, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:566
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:94b08641-f67a-43c4-b15d-b369b8af17e8
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barnett, William A. & Erwin Diewert, W. & Zellner, Arnold, 2011. "Introduction to measurement with theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 1-5, March.
    2. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January.
    3. Balk,Bert M., 2012. "Price and Quantity Index Numbers," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107404960, September.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2009. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 201-212, February.
    5. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
    6. Kalyan K. Sanyal & Ronald W. Jones, 2018. "The Theory of Trade in Middle Products," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Theory and Competitive Models Features, Values, and Criticisms, chapter 13, pages 203-231, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Diewert, W. E. & Wales, T. J., 1988. "A normalized quadratic semiflexible functional form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 327-342, March.
    8. J. Peter Neary, 2004. "Rationalizing the Penn World Table: True Multilateral Indices for International Comparisons of Real Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1411-1428, December.
    9. Alan Heston, "undated". "What Can Be Learned About the Economies of China and India from Purchasing Power Comparisons?," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 229, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    10. Samuelson, Paul A, 1974. "Analytical Notes on International Real-Income Measures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(335), pages 595-608, September.
    11. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oulton, Nicholas, 2015. "Space-time (In)consistency in the national accounts: causes and cures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramania & Simon Johnson, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and the Growth Literature," 2009 Meeting Papers 858, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2012. "How To Measure Living Standards And Productivity," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 424-456, September.
    5. Kent Deng & Patrick Karl O’Brien, 2014. "Creative Destruction: Chinese GDP per capita from the Han Dynasty to Modern Times," Working Papers 0063, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Long Hai Vo, 2021. "Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Almås, Ingvild & Kjelsrud, Anders, 2017. "Rags and Riches: Relative Prices, Non-Homothetic Preferences, and Inequality in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 102-121.
    8. Nicholas Oulton, 2011. "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: True PPPs for 141 Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp1080, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    10. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray & Kompal Sinha, 2014. "A Unified Framework for the Estimation of Intra and Inter Country Food Purchasing Power Parities with Application to Cross Country Comparisons of Food Expenditure: India, Indonesia and Vietnam," Monash Economics Working Papers 31-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Erwin Diewert, W. & Zellner, Arnold, 2011. "Introduction to measurement with theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 1-5, March.
    13. Deng, Kent & O’Brien, Patrick Karl, 2016. "China’s GDP per capita from the Han Dynasty to communist times," Economic History Working Papers 64857, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    14. Abe, Naohito & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2022. "Towards a simplified approach to international price comparisons: A case for the Multilateral Walsh Index," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP22-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray & Kompal Sinha, 2015. "Estimating Purchasing Power Parities from Household Expenditure Data Using Complete Demand Systems with Application to Living Standards Comparison: India and Vietnam," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 302-328, June.
    16. Diewert, Erwin, 2009. "Cost of Living Indexes and Exact Index Numbers," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2009-6, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 13 Feb 2009.
    17. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray, 2020. "National and subnational purchasing power parity: a review," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(2), pages 103-124, June.
    18. Ingvild Almas, 2012. "International Income Inequality: Measuring PPP Bias by Estimating Engel Curves for Food," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1093-1117, April.
    19. DECANCQ, Koen & FLEURBAEY, Marc & SCHOKKAERT, Erik, 2014. "Inequality, income, and well-being," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. repec:grz:wpaper:2012-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Almås, Ingvild & Johnsen, Åshild Auglænd, 2012. "The cost of living in China: Implications for inequality and poverty," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 21/2012, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EKS; Geary-Khamis and GAIA indexes; Gerschrenkron effect; International comparisons of real income and GDP; Measurement economics; Substitution bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.