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Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery

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  • Samuel Wills

Abstract

How should monetary policy respond to an oil discovery? Oil discoveries provide news that the natural level of output will rise in the future, which lowers the natural real rate of interest. Optimal monetary policy must accommodate these changes in natural output, and is well-approximated by a Taylor rule that responds to the natural real rate. Failure to accommodate these changes, as in a currency peg or naive Taylor rule, can cause forward-looking inflation and a recession. To prove this I incorporate oil and news shocks into a standard DSGE model of a small open economy that permits an analytical solution for optimal policy. I then use the model to present a novel explanation for the UK’s recessions of the 1970s and 80s, based on the discovery of North Sea oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Wills, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery," OxCarre Working Papers 121, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:121
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anthony J. Venables & Samuel E. Wills, 2016. "Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(suppl_2), pages 20-40.
    3. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    4. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2016. "Macro Policy Responses To Natural Resource Windfalls," OxCarre Working Papers 178, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2017. "Extractive revenues and government spending: Short- versus long-term considerations," WIDER Working Paper Series 045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    7. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 158, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    9. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2017. "Extractive revenues and government spending: Short- versus long-term considerations," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-45, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    11. Wills, Samuel, 2018. "Leave the volatility fund alone: Principles for managing oil wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 332-352.
    12. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Troug, Haytem, 2020. "The heterogeneity among commodity-rich economies: Beyond the prices of commodities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News shock; oil; optimal monetary policy; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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