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Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

Author

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  • Alfred A. Haug

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Ian P. King

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Working Papers 1109, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1109
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    2. Amaka G. Metu & Emmanuel Ajudua & Ifeoma Eboh & Chimezie Ukeje & Chekwube Madichie, 2020. "Ending youth unemployment in sub‐saharan Africa: Does ICT development have any role?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(S1), pages 20-31, November.
    3. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia," MPRA Paper 59794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; Long-Run Phillips Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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