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Have autocrats governed for the long term?

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  • Millemaci, Emanuele
  • Monteforte, Fabio
  • Temple, Jonathan R. W.

Abstract

The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long-term orientation. Using panel data, we show that our measure of long-term orientation Granger-causes public investment. We then show that its distribution under democracy first-order stochastically dominates its distribution under autocracy. This suggests that variation in long-term orientation is not a good candidate to explain the ‘autocratic gamble’ – the well-known tendency for growth rates to vary more widely across autocracies than across democracies. The true sources of the autocratic gamble remain a conundrum.

Suggested Citation

  • Millemaci, Emanuele & Monteforte, Fabio & Temple, Jonathan R. W., 2023. "Have autocrats governed for the long term?," SocArXiv w8khb, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:w8khb
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/w8khb
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    References listed on IDEAS

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