IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/b2t4x.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does austerity really kill?

Author

Listed:
  • Toffolutti, Veronica
  • Suhrcke, Marc

Abstract

A growing body of the literature has argued that austerity has been bad for health, though without directly measuring austerity. This paper explicitly distinguishes the association of mortality with macroeconomic fluctuations from that with fiscal policy measures, using data for 28 European Union (EU) countries covering the period 1991-2013. The main results present a nuanced, complex picture about the mortality impact of fiscal policies. We confirm the mortality decreasing (increasing) effect of recessions (booms), with the exception of suicide mortality, which shows the opposite effects. Austerity regimes are associated with an increase in all-cause mortality (0.7%). At the same time, fiscal stimuli tend to significantly increase death rates due to cirrhosis or chronic liver disease (3%) and those due to vehicle accidents (4.3%). Overall, the results appear to be sensitive to the set of countries included: when excluding the Baltics, Romania and Hungary, austerity policies turn out to significantly increase suicide-related mortality (2.8%), while the effect on all-cause mortality remains the same (0.7%).

Suggested Citation

  • Toffolutti, Veronica & Suhrcke, Marc, 2019. "Does austerity really kill?," SocArXiv b2t4x, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:b2t4x
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/b2t4x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5ce023a123fec40019e122f5/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/b2t4x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto F. Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 13-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Crost, Benjamin & Friedson, Andrew, 2017. "Recessions and health revisited: New findings for working age adults," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 27(PA), pages 241-247.
    3. Pérez-Moreno, Salvador & Blanco-Arana, María C. & Bárcena-Martín, Elena, 2016. "Economic cycles and child mortality: A cross-national study of the least developed countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 14-23.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bergin, Adele & Gerald, John Fitz & Kearney, Ide & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2011. "The Irish Fiscal Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217, pages 47-59, July.
    6. Jonathan A. Parker, 2011. "On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 703-718, September.
    7. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Jean‐Paul Lam & Emmanuelle Piérard, 2017. "The Time‐Varying Relationship between Mortality and Business Cycles in the USA," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 164-183, February.
    10. José A. Tapia Granados & Edward L. Ionides, 2017. "Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 219-235, December.
    11. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2006. "Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 298-316, December.
    12. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000. "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 19-68.
    14. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    15. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    16. Bonamore, Giorgio & Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio, 2015. "Addressing the unemployment–mortality conundrum: Non-linearity is the answer," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 67-72.
    17. Tapia Granados, José A. & Rodriguez, Javier M., 2015. "Health, economic crisis, and austerity: A comparison of Greece, Finland and Iceland," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 941-953.
    18. Kaplan, Erin K. & Collins, Courtney A. & Tylavsky, Frances A., 2017. "Cyclical unemployment and infant health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 27(PA), pages 281-288.
    19. Anders Barstad, 2008. "Explaining Changing Suicide Rates in Norway 1948–2004: The Role of Social Integration," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 47-64, May.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Collins, Alan, 2014. "The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide: On the empirics of a modern Greek tragedy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 39-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2020. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 13091, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2023. "Economic conditions and health: Local effects, national effect and local area heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 801-828.
    3. Balbo, Nicoletta & Carapella, Piergiorgio & Toffolutti, Veronica, 2020. "Trends in the use of mind-altering drugs among European adolescents during the Great Recession," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(5), pages 568-574.
    4. Cirulli, Vanessa & Marini, Giorgia, 2023. "Are austerity measures really distressing? Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Guccio, C. & Pignataro, G. & Vidoli, F., 2024. "It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Manuel Holz & Jochen Mayerl, 2021. "Early days of the pandemic—The association of economic and socio-political country characteristics with the development of the COVID-19 death toll," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Takashi Shiroyama & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Effects of Financial Expenditure of Prefectures/Municipalities on Regional Suicide Mortality in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-16, August.
    8. McCartney, Gerry & McMaster, Robert & Popham, Frank & Dundas, Ruth & Walsh, David, 2022. "Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    9. Toshiki Hasegawa & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Relationships between Expenditure of Regional Governments and Suicide Mortalities Caused by Six Major Motives in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Yuji Mizushima & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "Spillover effects of minimum wages on suicide mortality: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 2105, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    11. Lowenstein, Christopher, 2024. "“Deaths of despair” over the business cycle: New estimates from a shift-share instrumental variables approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Propper, Carol & Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A, 2020. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    5. Cristina Borra & Jerònia Pons-Pons & Margarita Vilar-Rodríguez, 2020. "Austerity, healthcare provision, and health outcomes in Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(3), pages 409-423, April.
    6. Nizalova, Olena & Norton, Edward C., 2021. "Long-term effects of job loss on male health: BMI and health behaviors," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    7. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    8. Max Brüning & Josselin Thuilliez, 2019. "Mortality and Macroeconomic Conditions: What Can We Learn From France?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    9. Wang, Qing & Tapia Granados, José A., 2019. "Economic growth and mental health in 21st century China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 387-395.
    10. Doerr, Sebastian & Hofmann, Boris, 2022. "Recessions and mortality: A global perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Wang, Huixia & Wang, Chenggang & Halliday, Timothy J., 2018. "Health and health inequality during the great recession: Evidence from the PSID," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 17-30.
    12. Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga & Hauksdóttir, Arna & Ruhm, Christopher & Valdimarsdóttir, Unnur Anna & Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey, 2020. "The effect of the economic collapse in Iceland on the probability of cardiovascular events," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    13. Federico Belotti & Joanna Kopinska & Alessandro Palma & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2022. "Health status and the Great Recession. Evidence from electronic health records," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 1770-1799, August.
    14. Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
    15. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    16. French, Michael T. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2021. "Death on the job: The Great Recession and work-related traffic fatalities," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    17. Contreras Juan & Battelle Holly, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 2014-15, Banco de México.
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Nikolaos Antonakakis & Alan Collins, 2014. "Does Fiscal Consolidation Really Get You Down? Evidence from Suicide Mortality," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp182, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Sarah Brown & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro & Luisanna Onnis, 2018. "Austerity, Life Satisfaction and Expectations," Working Papers 2018001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    20. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Luigi Guiso & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2010. "Chapter 3: From Fiscal Rescue to Global Debt," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 71-100, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:b2t4x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.