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The use of short-term indicators and survey data for predicting turning points in economic activity: A performance analysis of the OECD system of CLIs during the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Astolfi

    (OECD)

  • Michela Gamba

    (OECD)

  • Emmanuelle Guidetti

    (OECD)

  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier

    (OECD)

Abstract

After reviewing the main features of the statistics available in the MEI to inform policy makers, this paper discusses the performance of the CLIs during the Great Recession. This performance is assessed using both ex-post and real-time analyses. The analyses evaluate the ability of the OECD CLIs to anticipate the peak and the subsequent trough of the Great Recession in G7 countries, and the extent to which the initial signal has been maintained over time. Après un examen des principales caractéristiques des statistiques disponibles dans les PIE, ce document évalue la performance des Indicateurs Composites Avancés de l’OCDE pendant la Grande Récession. Des analyses ex-post et en temps réel sont menées pour apprécier la capacité de ces indicateurs à anticiper le pic et le creux de la Grande Récession dans les pays du G7, ainsi que la stabilité dans le temps des points de retournement détectés.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Astolfi & Michela Gamba & Emmanuelle Guidetti & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2016. "The use of short-term indicators and survey data for predicting turning points in economic activity: A performance analysis of the OECD system of CLIs during the Great Recession," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2016/8, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2016/8-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlz4gs2pkhf-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
    2. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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