IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbdps/2010-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: empirical evidence from Oceania

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The close integration of Australian and New Zealand financial markets and the similarity of the monetary policy regimes provide the perfect backdrop for testing the empirical relevance of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) in Oceania. We find that changes in the bilateral exchange rate have become more sensitive to the short-term interest differential over time. Most important, after the introduction of the Official Cash Rate regime in New Zealand, the responsiveness of the exchange rate has accelerated to such an extent that it is incompatible with UIP. Evidence on UIP over longer horizons is mixed with a 10-year horizon since 1990 providing the strongest support for the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Guender & Bevan Cook, 2010. "Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: empirical evidence from Oceania," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2010/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/2010/dp10-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    2. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    6. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    8. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:505-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Razzak, W A, 2002. "The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 293-308, October.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    11. Guender, Alfred V. & Oh, Do Yoon, 2006. "Price stability through price-level targeting or inflation targeting? A tale of two experiments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 373-391.
    12. Annika Alexius, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-517, August.
    13. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    14. Nick Smyth, 2007. "A profile of the NZ dollar foreign exchange market," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, September.
    15. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    16. Michael Reddell, 1999. "Origins and early development of the inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
    17. David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    18. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    19. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    20. Murray Sherwin, 1999. "Strategic choices in inflation targeting: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, June.
    21. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.
    2. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    4. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    5. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    6. Lee, Byung-Joo, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity puzzle: Asymmetric responses," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 238-249.
    7. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    8. Alfred Guender, 2011. "CPI Inflation Targeting and the UIP Puzzle: An Appraisal of Instrument and Target Rules," Working Papers in Economics 11/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. repec:beo:journl:v:62:y:2018:i:216:p:35-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sussman, Nathan & Saadon, Yossi, 2018. "Nominal exchange rate dynamics and monetary policy: uncovered interest rate parity and purchasing power parity revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 13235, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    13. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    14. Byung‐Joo Lee, 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 219-231, May.
    15. Zorica Mladenović & Jelena Rašković, 2018. "Econometric Testing Of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity In Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(216), pages 35-62, January –.
    16. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    17. Alfred V Guender, 2015. "International Evidence on the Role of Monetary Policy in the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," Working Papers in Economics 15/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    18. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    20. Stocker, Marshall L., 2016. "The price of freedom: Idiosyncratic currency devaluations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 312-325.
    21. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2010/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.