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When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises

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  • Chanelle Duley
  • Prasanna Gai

Abstract

We extend the canonical global game model of currency crises to allow for macroeconomic tail risk. The exchange rate peg is attacked if fundamentals reach a critical threshold, or if there is a sufficiently large public shock. Large shocks generate doubt amongst investors about both the state of the world and about what others know, giving rise to multiple equilibria. We find a non-monotonic relationship between tail risk and the probability of (a fundamentals-based) crisis and show how this effect depends on the magnitude and direction of public shocks. Our analysis sheds new light on the way in which international financial contagion played a part in the sterling crisis of 1931.

Suggested Citation

  • Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:520
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global games; currency crises; rank beliefs; inter-war gold standard; sterling crisis of 1931;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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