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Evaluating off-balance sheet exposures in banking crisis determination models

Author

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  • Iana Liadze
  • Ray Barrell
  • Professor E. Philip Davis

Abstract

Given the evident effect that banks' off-balance sheet activity has had on systemic vulnerability in the sub-prime crisis, we test for a consistent impact of off-balance sheet exposures on the probability of banking crises in OECD countries since 1980. Variables capturing off-balance sheet activity have been neglected in most early warning models to date, mainly due to the lack of the data. We find that the change in a proxy of off-balance sheet activity of banks derived from the share of non-interest income is significant in a parsimonious logit model also featuring bank capital adequacy, liquidity, changes in house prices and the current account balance to GDP ratio. We consider it essential that regulators take into account the results for the above proxy in regulating off-balance sheet exposures and controlling their contribution to systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Evaluating off-balance sheet exposures in banking crisis determination models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 357, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:357
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Aiginger & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2012. "Why Labor Market Response Differed in the Great Recession: The Impact of Institutions and Policy," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 3, pages 1-19, September.
    2. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? evidence from OECD inflation responses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56616, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2014. "Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 388-402.
    4. Karl Aiginger, 2011. "Why Growth Performance Differed across Countries in the Recent Crisis: the Impact of Pre-crisis Conditions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 35-52, August.
    5. AIGINGER Karl, 2011. "Why Performance Differed Across Countries In The Recent Crisis," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 20-27.
    6. Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-82.
    7. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? Evidence from OECD inflation responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 700-703.
    8. Kangwei Ye, 2015. "Off-Balance Sheet Activities And Bank Risks: An Investigation Of The Listed Commercial Banks In China (1999–2013)," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-21.
    9. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2012. "The procyclicality of Basel III leverage: Elasticity-based indicators and the Kalman filter," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp012012, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    10. Pu Liu & Yingying Shao, 2013. "Small business loan securitization and interstate risk sharing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 449-460, August.
    11. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2012. "Bank systemic risk and the business cycle: Canadian and U.S. evidence," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022012, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    12. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2011. "Bank systemic risk and the business cycle: An empirical investigation using Canadian data," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp322011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    13. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2013. "Market-oriented banking, financial stability and macro-prudential indicators of leverage," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 13-34.

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