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Financial Constraints and propagation of shocks in production network

Author

Listed:
  • Banu Demir
  • Beata Javorcik
  • Tomasz K. Michalski
  • Evren Ors

Abstract

This study finds that even small unexpected supply shocks propagate downstream through production networks and are amplified by firms with short-term financial constraints. The unexpected 2011 increase in the tax on imports purchased with foreign-sourced trade credit is examined using data capturing almost all Turkish supplier-customer links. The identification strategy exploits the heterogeneous impact of the shock on importers. The results indicate that this relatively minor, non-localized shock had a non-trivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Additional empirical tests, motivated by a simple theory, demonstrate that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2020. "Financial Constraints and propagation of shocks in production network," Discussion Papers 2020-23, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:2020-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Alfaro-Urena, Alonso & Manelici, Isabela & Vasquez, Jose P, 2019. "The Effects of Multinationals on Workers: Evidence from Costa Rica," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt51r419w9, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    3. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    4. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    5. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    production networks; shock transmission; financing constraints; liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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