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Emergent Uncertainty in Regional Integration -Economic impacts of alternative RTA scenarios-

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  • Kenichi Kawasaki

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

Recently a number of large-scale uncertainties have emerged as threats to the development of regional integration. Most notably, the UK has decided to leave the EU, and the new US president has stated that he will withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper presents a quantitative comparison of the economic impact of a number of alternative regional trade agreement (RTA) scenarios. The impacts were estimated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade. It is estimated that the US will no longer gain, and may even lose, if it withdraws from TPP. The benefits of the bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan will be smaller than those of TPP. Higher tariffs on US imports from China and Mexico will lead to significant deterioration of the economic welfare of not only China and Mexico but also the US. Furthermore, China fs benefit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may be relatively limited depending on the levels of the agreement and weighed against the adverse impacts of the possible US tariffs. The UK economy will suffer as a result of BREXIT, but the cost of BREXIT could be smaller than the possible benefits of joining TPP. All in all, it has been shown that income gains resulting from non-tariff measures (NTMs) reductions are much larger than those arising from tariff removals. Global best efforts are required to achieve larger scale RTAs and the resulting predictably larger economic benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenichi Kawasaki, 2017. "Emergent Uncertainty in Regional Integration -Economic impacts of alternative RTA scenarios-," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-27, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Masudur Rahman & Chanwahn Kim & Prabir De, 2020. "Indo-Pacific cooperation: what do trade simulations indicate?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Biyik, Onur, 2021. "Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios: Examination of the GTAP 10A MRIO Database," Conference papers 333265, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kimura, Fukunari & Okubo, Toshihiro & Steininger, Marina, 2019. "Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 110-128.
    4. Leudjou, Roland, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of eliminating Non-Tariff Barriers in the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Cameroons economy," Conference papers 330231, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2021. "Impact of tighter controls on Japanese chemical exports to Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 631-648.
    6. Sanguinet, Eduardo & Alvim, Augusto, 2020. "Effects of EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement on bilateral trade: the role of Brexit," Conference papers 333194, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Kenichi Kawasaki, 2024. "Supply-side Impact of Trade Liberalization and Disruption," GRIPS Discussion Papers 24-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2018. "Did Abenomics Succeed?: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.

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