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Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies

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  • Douglas Laxton
  • Paolo Pesenti

Abstract

This paper develops a variant of the IMF's Global Economic Model (GEM) suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and Inflation-Forecast-Based (IFB) rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open economies than conventional Taylor rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9568
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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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