IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8919.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic Technical Progress, Nearly Smooth Trends and Distinct Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Julio J. Rotemberg

Abstract

This paper investigates whether it is possible to entertain simultaneously two attractive views about US GDP. The first is that long term growth in US GDP is attributable to an empirically plausible specification of random technical progress. The second is that deviations of GDP from a fitted smooth 'trend' are mostly attributable to shocks that have only temporary effects, so that they are unrelated to the shocks to technical progress that lead to long term growth. The paper shows that these two views are not incompatible by constructing a model where stochastic technical progress (whose properties are calibrated to fit some features of US data) has essentially no effect on suitably detrended time series of GDP. The paper also studies variations in wedges between price and marginal cost that are capable of giving rise to these transitory movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio J. Rotemberg, 2002. "Stochastic Technical Progress, Nearly Smooth Trends and Distinct Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8919
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8919.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know (and not know) about potential output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 187-214.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    2. Zeno Enders, 2020. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Segmented Asset Markets and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 1031-1056.
    3. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Sungbae An & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2009. "Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 29-54, July.
    5. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in hours, balanced growth, and the role of technology in the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 459-486.
    6. Riccardo DiCecio, 2004. "Comovement: it's not a puzzle," 2004 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know (and not know) about potential output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 187-214.
    8. Nikolay Chernyshev, 2017. "R&D Cyclicality and Composition Effects: A Unifying Approach," CDMA Working Paper Series 201705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    9. DiCecio, Riccardo, 2009. "Sticky wages and sectoral labor comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 538-553, March.
    10. Heiberger, Christopher & Maußner, Alfred, 2020. "Perturbation solution and welfare costs of business cycles in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Epstein, Brendan & Mukherjee, Rahul & Ramnath, Shanthi, 2016. "Taxes and international risk sharing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 310-326.
    12. Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide & Yongsung Chang, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," 2010 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Yariv, Leeat & Jackson, Matthew O., 2018. "The Non-Existence of Representative Agents," CEPR Discussion Papers 13397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    16. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
    17. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Ángel Estrada, 2006. "BEMOD: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy and the rest of the Euro area," Working Papers 0631, Banco de España.
    18. Timo Boppart & Per Krusell, 2020. "Labor Supply in the Past, Present, and Future: A Balanced-Growth Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(1), pages 118-157.
    19. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May.
    20. James B. Davies & Jinli Zeng & Jie Zhang, 2009. "Time‐consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and a balanced government budget," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 1023-1049, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.