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Savings and the Terms of Trade Under Borrowing Constraints

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  • Pierre-Richard Agenor
  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 2000. "Savings and the Terms of Trade Under Borrowing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 7743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7743
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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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