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Game, Sweat, Match: Temperature and Elite Worker Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Marshall Burke
  • Vincent Tanutama
  • Sam Heft-Neal
  • Miyuki Hino
  • David Lobell

Abstract

The effect of hot temperatures on labor productivity is thought to be a key channel through which a warming climate will impact the economy, and these impacts could help explain broader observed relationships between temperature and economic output. Yet for many workers and jobs, especially the high-wage service-economy work that constitutes a large share of total economic output in wealthy nations, productivity is hard to measure and thus climate impacts hard to quantify. We study a high-wage job where individual productivity is readily observable: professional tennis. Using 15 years of data on 177 thousand tennis matches merged to hourly temperature data, we study the effects of temperature on tennis performance in contemporaneous and future matches. Variation in player birthplace and residence allows us to study whether players adapt to heat, and data from betting markets allows us to evaluate whether markets price climate risk. We find that hot temperatures increase contemporaneous errors and retirements, and reduce win probability in the subsequent match. In percentage terms, estimated effects on earnings are smaller than lower-wage settings studied in existing literature. By most measures, top players are less affected by hot temperatures. Most tennis betting markets appear to accurately price climate risk, and temperature impacts do not appear to offer profitable arbitrage opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Burke & Vincent Tanutama & Sam Heft-Neal & Miyuki Hino & David Lobell, 2023. "Game, Sweat, Match: Temperature and Elite Worker Productivity," NBER Working Papers 31650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31650
    Note: EEE
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    Cited by:

    1. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2024. "The impact of high temperatures on performance in work-related activities," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Matteo Picchio & Jan C. van Ours, 2024. "High temperatures and workplace injuries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-057/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Feriga, Moustafa & Lozano Gracia, Nancy & Serneels, Pieter, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work Lessons for Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Mario Lackner & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2024. "When performance melts away: Heat causes mental errors in high-stakes competitions," Economics working papers 2024-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Moustafa Feriga & Mancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2024. "The impact of climate change on work lessons for developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2024-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Zhang, Jingfang & Malikov, Emir & Miao, Ruiqing, 2024. "Distributional effects of the increasing heat incidence on labor productivity," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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