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Price Level and Inflation Dynamics in Heterogeneous Agent Economies

Author

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  • Greg Kaplan
  • Georgios Nikolakoudis
  • Giovanni L. Violante

Abstract

We study equilibria in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market economy with nominal government debt and flexible prices. Unlike in representative agent economies, steady-state equilibria exist when the government runs persistent deficits, provided that the level of deficits is not too large. In these equilibria, the real interest rate is below the growth rate of the economy. We quantify the maximum sustainable deficit for the US and show that it is lower under more redistributive tax and transfer systems. With constant primary deficits, there exist two steady-states, and the price level and inflation are not uniquely determined. We describe alternative policy settings that deliver uniqueness. We conduct quantitative experiments to illustrate how redistribution and precautionary saving amplify price level increases in response to fiscal helicopter drops, deficit expansions, and loose monetary policy. We show that rising primary deficits can account for a decline in the long-run real interest rate, leading to higher inflation for any given monetary policy. Our work highlights the role of household heterogeneity and market incompleteness in determining inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Kaplan & Georgios Nikolakoudis & Giovanni L. Violante, 2023. "Price Level and Inflation Dynamics in Heterogeneous Agent Economies," NBER Working Papers 31433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31433
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño Barrau & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates," BIS Working Papers 1172, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Laura Castillo-Martinez & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed," Discussion Papers 2433, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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