IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30668.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Petra E. Todd
  • Weilong Zhang

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal (federal) minimum wage policies on employment, wages, job postings, vacancies, migration/commuting, and welfare. In the model, workers, who differ in terms of location and education levels, search for jobs locally and in a neighboring area. If they receive remote offers, they decide whether to migrate or commute. Firms post vacancies in multiple locations and make offers subject to minimum wage constraints. The model is estimated using multiple databases, including the American Community Survey (ACS) and Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), and exploiting minimum wage variation across state borders as well as time series variation (2005-2015). Results show that local minimum wage increases lead firms to post fewer wage offers in both local and neighboring areas and lead lower education workers to reduce interstate commuting. An out-of-sample validation finds that model forecasts of commuting responses to city minimum wage hikes are similar to patterns in the data. A welfare analysis shows how minimum wage effects vary by worker type and with the minimum wage level. Low skill workers benefit from local wage increases up to $10.75/hour and high skill workers up to $12.25/hour. The greatest per capital welfare gain (including both workers and firms) is achieved by a universal minimum wage increase of $12.75/hour.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra E. Todd & Weilong Zhang, 2022. "Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach," NBER Working Papers 30668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30668
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30668.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2019. "Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3307-3338, September.
    3. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    4. Pierre Cahuc & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "Wage Bargaining with On-the-Job Search: Theory and Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 323-364, March.
    5. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
    6. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "How Local Are Labor Markets? Evidence from a Spatial Job Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2877-2907, October.
    7. Ahn, Tom & Arcidiacono, Peter & Wessels, Walter, 2011. "The Distributional Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases When Both Labor Supply and Labor Demand Are Endogenous," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 12-23.
    8. Blömer, Maximilian J. & Guertzgen, Nicole & Pohlan, Laura & Stichnoth, Holger & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2024. "Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Ronni Pavan, 2012. "Understanding the City Size Wage Gap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(1), pages 88-127.
    10. Christopher J. Flinn, 2006. "Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search, Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1013-1062, July.
    11. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French & Isaac Sorkin & Ted To, 2018. "Industry Dynamics And The Minimum Wage: A Putty†Clay Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 51-84, February.
    12. Coen-Pirani, Daniele, 2010. "Understanding gross worker flows across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 769-784, October.
    13. Joan Monras, 2019. "Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 853-904.
    14. Enrico Moretti & Daniel J. Wilson, 2017. "The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1858-1903, July.
    15. Gürtzgen, Nicole & Blömer, Maximilian & Pohlan, Laura & Stichnoth, Holger & van den Berg, Gerard, 2016. "Estimating an Equilibrium Job Search Model for the German Labour Market," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145950, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Cadena, Brian C., 2014. "Recent immigrants as labor market arbitrageurs: Evidence from the minimum wage," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-12.
    17. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    18. Fraker, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1988. "The effect of food stamps on labor supply : A bivariate selection model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-56, February.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850c12h1p is not listed on IDEAS
    20. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2016. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 58-99, January.
    21. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    22. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    23. Albrecht, James W & Axell, Bo, 1984. "An Equilibrium Model of Search Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 824-840, October.
    24. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2008. "The Economics of Place-Making Policies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 155-253.
    25. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 3(1–2), pages 1-182, March.
    26. Matias Busso & Jesse Gregory & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 897-947, April.
    27. Pierre Cahuc & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "Wage bargaining with on-the-job search: theory and evidence," SciencePo Working papers hal-03471856, HAL.
    28. Benoît Schmutz & Modibo Sidibé, 2019. "Frictional Labour Mobility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1779-1826.
    29. Patrick Kline, 2010. "Place Based Policies, Heterogeneity, and Agglomeration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 383-387, May.
    30. Daniel Kuehn, 2016. "Spillover Bias in Cross-Border Minimum Wage Studies: Evidence from a Gravity Model," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 441-459, December.
    31. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2021. "City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    32. Gerard J. van den Berg & Geert Ridder, 1998. "An Empirical Equilibrium Search Model of the Labor Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1183-1222, September.
    33. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
    34. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    35. Tobias Renkin & Claire Montialoux & Michael Siegenthaler, 2022. "The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into U.S. Retail Prices: Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 890-908, December.
    36. Dale T. Mortensen, 2005. "Wage Dispersion: Why Are Similar Workers Paid Differently?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633191, April.
    37. John Horton, 2017. "Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6548, CESifo.
    38. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    39. Young, Cristobal & Varner, Charles, 2011. "Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes: Evidence From a Natural Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 255-283, June.
    40. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    41. Blömer, Maximilian J. & Guertzgen, Nicole & Pohlan, Laura & Stichnoth, Holger & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2024. "Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    42. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch & David C. Wittenburg, 2000. "Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(1), pages 16-40, July.
    43. Isaac Sorkin, 2015. "Are There Long-Run Effects of the Minimum Wage?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 306-333, April.
    44. Moffitt, Robert A., 2002. "Welfare programs and labor supply," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 34, pages 2393-2430, Elsevier.
    45. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch & David C. Wittenburg, 2000. "Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(1), pages 16-40, July.
    46. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
    47. Schwartz, Aba, 1973. "Interpreting the Effect of Distance on Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(5), pages 1153-1169, Sept.-Oct.
    48. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
    49. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
    50. McKinnish, Terra, 2017. "Cross-state differences in the minimum wage and out-of-state commuting by low-wage workers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 137-147.
    51. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1990. "Estimating a Market Equilibrium Search Model from Panel Data on Individuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 783-808, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weilong Zhang, 2018. "Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wage Hikes: A Spatial Job Search Approach," 2018 Meeting Papers 12, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Zhang, W., 2018. "Distribution Effects of Local Minimum Wage Hikes: A Spatial Job Search Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1889, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2524, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Lavecchia, Adam M., 2020. "Minimum wage policy with optimal taxes and unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Christopher Flinn & Joseph Mullins, 2015. "Labor Market Search And Schooling Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 359-398, May.
    6. Marianna Kudlyak & Murat Tasci & Didem Tuzemen, 2019. "Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies," Working Papers 19-30R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    7. Neumark David, 2019. "The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 293-329, August.
    8. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.
    9. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    10. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    11. Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2008. "A quantitative evaluation of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers: An equilibrium search approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 817-843, April.
    12. Benoît Schmutz & Modibo Sidibé, 2019. "Frictional Labour Mobility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1779-1826.
    13. Perez Perez, Jorge, 2020. "City Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium Effects," SocArXiv fpx9e, Center for Open Science.
    14. Engelhardt, Bryan & Rupert, Peter, 2017. "Competitive versus random search with bargaining: An empirical comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 183-197.
    15. Violante, Giovanni & Hornstein, Andreas, 2006. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 4, pages 331-461, Elsevier.
    17. Christopher Flinn & Ahu Gemici & Steven Laufer, 2017. "Search, Matching, and Training," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 260-297, April.
    18. Christopher Flinn & James Mabli & Joseph Mullins, 2017. "Firms' Choices of Wage-Setting Protocols in the Presence of Minimum Wages," Working Papers 2017-070, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    19. Damdinsuren, Erdenebulgan & Zaharieva, Anna, 2023. "Expectation formation and learning in the labour market with on-the-job search and Nash bargaining," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.