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The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location

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Listed:
  • Robert M. Lantis
  • Erik T. Nesson

Abstract

Do basketball players exhibit a hot hand? Results from controlled shooting situations suggest the answer is yes, while results from in-game shooting are mixed. Are the differing results because a hot hand is only present in similar shots or because testing for the hot hand in game situations is difficult? Combining repeated shots in a location and shots across locations, the NBA 3-Point Contests mimics game situations without many of the confounding factors. Using data on the 1986-2019 contests, we find a hot hand, but only within shot locations. Shooting streaks increase a hot hand only if a player makes his previous shot and only within locations. Even making three shots in a row has no effect on making the next shot if a player moves locations. Our results suggest that any hot hand in basketball is only present in extremely similar shooting situations and likely not in the run-of-play.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert M. Lantis & Erik T. Nesson, 2021. "The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location," NBER Working Papers 29468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29468
    Note: LS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z29 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Other

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