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Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks

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  • Alessandro Barattieri
  • Matteo Cacciatore

Abstract

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting procedural details of TTBs and high-frequency data, we identify movements in protectionism exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade-policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. In contrast, the effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate-inputs and final goods prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2020. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 27630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27630
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    4. Barattieri, Alessandro & Borda, Patrice & Brugnoli, Alberto & Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "The short-run, dynamic employment effects of natural disasters: New insights from Puerto Rico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2021. "Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 15908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Walter Steingress & Ben Tomlin, 2023. "Climate Variability and International Trade," Staff Working Papers 23-8, Bank of Canada.
    12. Felix Bierbrauer, 2022. "Nachhaltigkeitsziele und das Lieferkettengesetz [Sustainability Goals and Supply Chain Due Diligence Laws]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 344-346, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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