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Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020

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  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Rashad Ahmed
  • Sameer Nair-Desai
  • Weining Xin
  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

We compare the importance of market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining Eurozone sovereign spreads. First, we estimate a multifactor model for changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads over January 2014 - June 2019. Then, we apply a synthetic control-type procedure to extrapolate model-implied changes in the CDS. The factor model does very well over the rest of 2019 but breaks down during the pandemic, especially during March 2020 when there is a large divergence between the actual and model-implied CDS changes. We find that the March 2020 divergence is well accounted for by COVID-specific risks and associated policies, mortality outcomes, and policy announcements, rather than traditional determinants. Daily CDS widening ceased almost immediately after the ECB announced the PEPP, but the divergence between actual and model-implied changes persisted. This points to COVID-19 Dominance: widening spreads during the pandemic has led to unconventional monetary policies that primarily aim to mitigate short-run fears, temporarily pushing away concerns over fiscal risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Yothin Jinjarak & Rashad Ahmed & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin & Joshua Aizenman, 2020. "Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020," NBER Working Papers 27451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27451
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    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Crash Course on the Euro Crisis," Working Papers 258, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    4. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2021. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    7. Reinhart, C. M., 2012. "The return of financial repression," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 37-48, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shi-Zheng, 2022. "Do green financing and industrial structure matter for green economic recovery? Fresh empirical insights from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Chien, FengSheng & Li, Li & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Evaluating green innovation and performance of financial development: mediating concerns of environmental regulation," MPRA Paper 109671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "European household and business expectations during COVID-19: Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?," BoF Economics Review 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin & William F. Hahn & Matthew T. Holt, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 and Price Transmission in U.S. Meat Markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 441-458, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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