IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27333.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965

Author

Listed:
  • W. Walker Hanlon
  • Casper Worm Hansen
  • Jake W. Kantor

Abstract

Using weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our results show that both warm and cold weeks were associated with elevated mortality in the late 19th-century, but heat effects, due mainly to infant deaths from digestive diseases, largely disappeared after WWI. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deaths–equal to 0.8-1.3 percent of all deaths–were averted. Our findings also indicate that a series of hot years in the 1890s substantially changed the timing of the infant mortality decline in London.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Walker Hanlon & Casper Worm Hansen & Jake W. Kantor, 2020. "Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866-1965," NBER Working Papers 27333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27333
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27333.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barreca, Alan I., 2012. "Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-34.
    2. Komisarow, Sarah, 2017. "Public health regulation and mortality: Evidence from early 20th century milk laws," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 126-144.
    3. Millward, Robert & Bell, Frances N., 1998. "Economic factors in the decline of mortality in late nineteenth century Britain," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 263-288, December.
    4. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    5. Peter Ekamper & Frans van Poppel & Coen van Duin & Joop Garssen, 2009. "150 Years of temperature-related excess mortality in the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(14), pages 385-426.
    6. Alan Barreca, 2017. "Does hot weather affect human fertility?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 375-375, July.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    8. Marcella Alsan & Claudia Goldin, 2019. "Watersheds in Child Mortality: The Role of Effective Water and Sewerage Infrastructure, 1880–1920," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 586-638.
    9. Beach, Brian & Ferrie, Joseph & Saavedra, Martin & Troesken, Werner, 2016. "Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 41-75, March.
    10. Huck, Paul, 1997. "Shifts in the Seasonality of Infant Deaths in Nine English Towns during the 19th Century: A Case for Reduced Breast Feeding?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 368-386, July.
    11. David Cutler & Grant Miller, 2005. "The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Jonathan Chapman, 2019. "The contribution of infrastructure investment to Britain's urban mortality decline, 1861–1900," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 233-259, February.
    13. Geruso, Michael & Spears, Dean, 2018. "Heat, Humidity, and Infant Mortality in the Developing World," IZA Discussion Papers 11717, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. W. Walker Hanlon, 2018. "London Fog: A Century of Pollution and Mortality, 1866-1965," NBER Working Papers 24488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Deschenes, Olivier, 2014. "Temperature, human health, and adaptation: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 606-619.
    16. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    17. Troesken, Werner, 2002. "The Limits Of Jim Crow: Race And The Provision Of Water And Sewerage Services In American Cities, 1880–1925," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 734-772, September.
    18. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    19. Price V. Fishback & Werner Troesken & Trevor Kollmann & Michael Haines & Paul W. Rhode & Melissa Thomasson, 2011. "Information and the Impact of Climate and Weather on Mortality Rates during the Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 131-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Troesken, Werner & Tynan, Nicola & Yang, Yuanxiaoyue Artemis, 2021. "What are the health benefits of a constant water supply? Evidence from London, 1860–1910," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. von Hinke, Stephanie & Sørensen, Emil N., 2023. "The long-term effects of early-life pollution exposure: Evidence from the London smog," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Jäger, Philipp, 2023. "Can pensions save lives? Evidence from the introduction of old-age assistance in the UK," Ruhr Economic Papers 995, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Nanna Fukushima & Stephanie von Hinke & Emil N. S{o}rensen, 2024. "The long-term human capital and health impacts of a pollution reduction programme," Papers 2409.11839, arXiv.org.
    5. Toke S. Aidt & Romola J. Davenport & Felix Gray, 2023. "New perspectives on the contribution of sanitary investments to mortality decline in English cities, 1845–1909," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 624-660, May.
    6. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2023. "Climate change and the mortality of the unborn," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    2. D. Mark Anderson & Daniel I. Rees & Tianyi Wang, 2019. "The Phenomenon of Summer Diarrhea and its Waning, 1910-1930," NBER Working Papers 25689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    4. Cosaert, Sam & Nieto Castro, Adrian & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," IZA Discussion Papers 16480, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2018. "Misfortunes never come singly: Consecutive weather shocks and mortality in Russia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 249-258.
    6. Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán, 2020. "Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 730-757, August.
    7. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Michael Geruso & Dean Spears, 2018. "Heat, Humidity, and Infant Mortality in the Developing World," NBER Working Papers 24870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Nguyen, Toan Truong, 2022. "Climate Change, Cold Waves, Heat Waves, and Mortality: Evidence from a Lower Middle-Income Country," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1034, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Chen, Xi & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "The Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Temperature Extremes on Birth Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 12917, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Chen, Fanglin & Zhang, Xin & Chen, Zhongfei, 2023. "Behind climate change: Extreme heat and health cost," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-110.
    12. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Anderson, D. Mark & Rees, Daniel I. & Wang, Tianyi, 2019. "The Phenomenon of Summer Diarrhea and Its Waning, 1910-1930," IZA Discussion Papers 12232, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. François Cohen & Antoine Dechezlepretre, 2017. "Mortality inequality, temperature and public health provision: evidence from Mexico," GRI Working Papers 268, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    15. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2023. "Climate change and the mortality of the unborn," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Agarwal, Sumit & Qin, Yu & Shi, Luwen & Wei, Guoxu & Zhu, Hongjia, 2021. "Impact of temperature on morbidity: New evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    18. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    19. Anderson, D. Mark & Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Rees, Daniel I. & Wang, Tianyi, 2021. "Water purification efforts and the black‐white infant mortality gap, 1906–1938," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Lauren Hoehn‐Velasco & Elizabeth Wrigley‐Field, 2022. "City health departments, public health expenditures, and urban mortality over 1910–1940," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 929-953, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.