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Aggregation and the Gravity Equation

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  • Stephen J. Redding
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

One of the most successful empirical relationships in international trade is the gravity equation, which relates bilateral trade flows between an origin and destination to bilateral trade frictions, origin characteristics, and destination characteristics. A key decision for researchers in estimating this relationship is the level of aggregation, since the gravity equation is log linear, whereas aggregation involves summing the level rather than the log level of trade flows. In this paper, we derive an exact Jensen's inequality correction term for the gravity equation in a nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) import demand system, such that a log-linear gravity equation holds exactly for each nest of this demand system. We use this result to decompose the effect of distance on bilateral trade in the aggregate gravity equation into the contribution of a number of different terms from sectoral gravity equations. We show that changes in sectoral composition make a quantitatively relevant contribution towards the aggregate effect of distance, particularly for more disaggregated definitions of sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "Aggregation and the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 25464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25464
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    Cited by:

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    2. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2024. "Accounting for trade patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Egger, Peter H. & Li, Jie & Wu, Han, 2024. "Decomposing China’s bilateral export growth: A firm-regional-transactions structural gravity approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. MORI Tomoya, 2021. "Regularity in Urban Agglomeration Patterns and Its Macroscopic Implications for Regional Policies (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 21012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Peter R. Herman, 2022. "A pragmatic approach to estimating nondiscriminatory non‐tariff trade costs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1258-1287, September.
    6. Jareb, Colin & Nigai, Sergey, 2022. "Gravity models and the Law of Large Numbers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    7. Vandenbussche, Hylke & Aw-Roberts, Bee Yan & Lee, Yi, 2019. "The Importance of Consumer Taste in Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 13614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ingo Borchert & Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Disaggregated gravity: Benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 113-136, February.
    9. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2020. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities: Worth Weighting For," Working Papers DT/2020/08, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Zheng, Han, 2022. "Heterogeneous Internal Trade Cost and Its Implications in Trade," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-117, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Khanal, Ghanashyam & Zhang, Daowei & Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2024. "A gravity model analysis of trade regulations on wood products exports: Evidence from Cameroon, Ghana, and the republic of Congo," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    12. Gabriel E. Kreindler & Yuhei Miyauchi, 2019. "Measuring Commuting and Economic Activity inside Cities with Cell Phone Records," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Apr 2020.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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